Over the years, the Indian government has been making persistent efforts to increase Northeast India’s external economic engagement. With the emergence of Indo-Pacific as an important engagement framework, Northeast India must figure prominently in the new regional imaginations. Although the Indo-Pacific is predominantly a maritime construct, it is important to ensure that landlocked Northeast India is plugged into its various initiatives to ensure sustainable peace and prosperity in the region.
Different regions in India have different economic competencies. For instance, Maharashtra and Gujarat have a large manufacturing base. Similarly, cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad have significant strengths in the information technology (IT) sector. Hyderabad also has a vibrant pharmaceutical sector, which ensured a steady supply of vaccines and medicines to various countries in the Indo-Pacific region during the recent pandemic. Similarly, Northeast India plays a significant role in India’s Indo-Pacific vision. India’s Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, in his 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue speech, stated that one of the critical components of India’s Act East and Indo-Pacific visions is to integrate the eastern part of India, specifically the Northeast India, with its eastern neighbourhood.
Although the Indo-Pacific is predominantly a maritime construct, it is important to ensure that landlocked Northeast India is plugged into its various initiatives to ensure sustainable peace and prosperity in the region.
For India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality is crucial, and the Northeast provides a land bridge to continental Southeast Asia. India is also keen on strengthening the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN) framework, as well as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), with Northeast India assuming a key position. For India, this region is not an endpoint but a platform to engage with countries in the eastern neighbourhood.Therefore, it is not surprising that various governments in India are working persistently to make the Northeast a connectivity hub in the region. In the recent past, there has been a significant upgrade of infrastructure connectivity projects in Northeast India. These include massive upgradation of the road network, construction of bridges across the mighty Brahmaputra River, operationalisation of new airports under the UDAN scheme and connecting different regions of Northeast India through the rail network. In a significant development, the Bairabi-Sarang railway line in Mizoram was operationalised at an estimated cost of over INR 8000 crore. With the extension of the railway line, Mizoram is now connected to the national railway network.
For India, this region is not an endpoint but a platform to engage with countries in the eastern neighbourhood.
In the context of international collaboration, Japan is playing a significant role in upgrading the infrastructure through various initiatives such as the Northeast Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has provided a US$200 million loan to better manage flood and riverbank erosion along the Brahmaputra River in Assam. Furthermore, the United States (US)-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) has expressed interest in exploring investment opportunities in North Bengal and Northeastern states in India. However, the growing economic profile of Northeast India is getting impacted by adverse political developments in the eastern neighbourhood.
Turmoil in Myanmar and Bangladesh – Impact on Northeast India
While infrastructure projects in India’s Northeast have made significant progress, regional connectivity projects are being negatively impacted by the political turmoil in Bangladesh and Myanmar. In fact, the enduring political crisis in the neighbourhood has had a significant negative impact on the Northeast’s economic prospects. Myanmar is experiencing one of the longest-running insurgencies in the world. Following the 2021 military coup, the situation has deteriorated significantly, with the country now experiencing fragmented sovereignty. According to various reports, Myanmar’s military is unable to exercise control over approximately half the nation’s territory. Multiple armed ethnic groups control several parts of the country. For instance, the Arakan Army is in complete control of Rakhine province, except for the port city of Sittwe. The Arakan Army was in control of Paletwa, a city in Chin State in Myanmar, adjacent to Mizoram in India.
Interestingly, despite controlling large territories of their respective homelands, various ethnic armed groups have not declared independence. An underlying reason is a significant overlap in the boundaries of ethnic homelands. In such a context, a declaration of independence by even one armed group may lead to internecine conflict among various ethnic armed groups. As a consequence, Myanmar is going through a unique political phase where various ethnic armed groups control large tracts of territory and yet are reluctant to declare independence. On the other hand, the Myanmar military is unlikely to regain the territory it has lost anytime soon. Such fragmentation of political authority has created conditions for the rise of conflict economies, where criminal syndicates are engaged in activities such as drug production and cybercrimes that provide resources for the military and armed groups to continue their conflict.
Such fragmentation of political authority has created conditions for the rise of conflict economies, where criminal syndicates are engaged in activities such as drug production and cybercrimes that provide resources for the military and armed groups to continue their conflict.
Furthermore, sustained political conflict has resulted in large-scale migration of people to neighbouring countries, including Mizoram in India. The movement of refugees has created economic stress on the Mizoram State, as it has had to provide for the economic needs of the migrants. There were instances when Myanmar military personnel fled into neighbouring Mizoram in India to avoid being captured by ethnic armed groups. Because of sustained armed conflict, the cross-border trade and infrastructure projects were negatively impacted.
Similarly, the political crisis in Bangladesh has undermined India’s efforts to build connectivity networks across it into Northeast India. Due to the landlocked nature of Northeast India, accessing the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh has always been of great importance. In the recent past, India has been able to ship heavy equipment to the Northeast via the Chattogram Port in Bangladesh. India has also been working with Bangladesh to upgrade railway networks. However,the recent political crisis in Bangladesh has stalled some of these connectivity projects. The cross-border trade between Northeast India and Bangladesh has also declined, resulting in revenue losses for some states, such as Meghalaya.There are also reports that Bangladesh may give the Teesta river development project to Chinese firms. Such a move by the interim government in Dhaka has raised security concerns in India, given the project’s location near the narrow Siliguri corridor, which connects the Northeast with the rest of the country.
The recent political crisis in Bangladesh has stalled some of these connectivity projects. The cross-border trade between Northeast India and Bangladesh has also declined, resulting in revenue losses for some states, such as Meghalaya.
India-US Cooperation in Northeast India
Amidst this volatile geopolitical context, India and the US are seeking to upgrade their bilateral relationship. Unfortunately, the India-US bilateral relationship is also experiencing considerable strain due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Northeast India has been the site of prolonged insurgencies, reportedly supported by various external elements. While large parts of the region are now free of insurgency, anxieties regarding the intentions of external players persist. Therefore, an Indo-US nexus here will have to carefully navigate the anxieties associated with the regional geopolitical situation and the existing stress in the bilateral relationship. More specifically, if the US is keen to enhance bilateral development cooperation in Northeast India, a region defined by political, ethnic, and ecological sensitivities, then it will have to take steps that will generate considerable trust and goodwill in India.
Northeast India always paid a heavy price because of the migrant influx, increased incidence of crime, and reduced cross-border economic interactions due to the political instability in Bangladesh. India and the US must get on the same page in addressing the growing sectarian and political violence in Bangladesh. Such convergence between India and the US will be beneficial for Northeast India, especially Mizoram.
In addition to such geopolitical strategies, India and the US can collaborate on bolstering development infrastructure in Northeast India. The Quad Joint Statement, issued in Wilmington in September 2024, highlights the successes within the health sector and the Cancer Moonshot programme. Under these initiatives, the US can potentially support India’s healthcare programmes in Northeast India. Instead of creating new initiatives, providing additional infrastructure support to central/state government healthcare facilities in Northeast India can be considered. The Quad Joint Statement also emphasises the need to build quality infrastructure. The US can consider cooperating with India to consolidate the progress made under the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project and also improve connectivity with Bangladesh. Such measures will benefit Northeast India, in general and Mizoram, in particular.
India-US cooperation in Northeast India must navigate multilayered geopolitical turbulence, including the dissonance in the India-US relationship and the upheavals in domestic politics in India’s neighbouring countries.
India and the US have reiterated their commitment to cooperate in the domain of critical minerals for emerging technologies. It is well known that China is sourcing large quantities of rare earth resources from Myanmar. It is estimated that over 50 percent of China’s total critical mineral imports are sourced from Myanmar. India is yet to import such resources from Myanmar. The rare earth mineral supply chain from Myanmar to India will benefit Northeast India. The US playing a role in building such a rare earth mineral supply chain is a prospect worth exploring.
In essence, India-US cooperation in Northeast India must navigate multilayered geopolitical turbulence, including the dissonance in the India-US relationship and the upheavals in domestic politics in India’s neighbouring countries. Therefore, the cooperation between the two countries in India’s Northeast and its eastern neighbourhood should be defined by carefully designed, calibrated initiatives that promote trust, sustainable peace, and prosperity in the region.
Sanjay Pulipaka is the Chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation. He was previously a Pavate Fellow at the University of Cambridge and was a Fulbright Fellow in the US.
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