A new conflict risk survey from the Council on Foreign Relations warns that the world is heading toward a more dangerous year, with top global conflicts expected to intensify and threaten U.S. interests in 2026. Researchers say armed violence is at its highest level since World War II and increasingly involves state-to-state confrontation.
They add that the United States faces growing exposure because of its wide network of alliances and security commitments. Survey director Paul B. Stares says U.S. leaders often feel caught off guard by crises and later argue that earlier action might have changed outcomes.
The Preventive Priorities Survey gathered responses from about 620 U.S. government officials, foreign policy specialists and academics, asking them to rank 30 conflict scenarios by likelihood and impact. Five developments fall into the highest-risk category, meaning both highly likely and highly damaging.
Those include rising clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, renewed fighting in Gaza, an intensifying Russia-Ukraine war, possible U.S. military strikes against transnational criminal groups in Venezuela and mounting domestic unrest inside the United States.
High-impact threats shape the global risk landscape
Other severe risks rank as high impact even if judged less likely. Experts warn about the possibility of renewed Iran-Israel confrontation, an artificial intelligence driven cyberattack on critical U.S. infrastructure, a crisis over Taiwan due to pressure from China, armed incidents between Russia and NATO countries, and renewed North Korean nuclear testing that could spark regional conflict.
The report notes that anxiety about international instability remains unusually high. Of the 30 scenarios, 28 are seen as highly or moderately likely to occur in 2026. Seventeen would carry high or moderate consequences for U.S. national security.
The Middle East again stands out in the survey, with six conflicts involving the region listed among the most serious concerns. Africa accounts for the highest number of conflicts overall, and experts identify Sudan as the most likely conflict to escalate next year.
The authors say this cluster of risks shows that top global conflicts are concentrated but remain globally connected.
Shifting priorities and paths to prevention
Some priorities shifted compared with last year. Ukraine, Gaza, Iran-Israel tensions and the threat of a major cyberattack remain near the top, while North Korea rises to the highest tier.
Haiti, Lebanon, Mexico and the South China Sea fall into a lower tier of concern. Political violence in the United States returns to the top category after easing in the previous report.
The survey also stresses that prevention is still possible. Experts identify opportunities for U.S. diplomacy and international cooperation to reduce the likelihood of escalation in Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan, and several humanitarian crises, especially in Sudan and Syria.
The findings urge U.S. policymakers to look ahead and act early rather than respond only after conflicts have already erupted.
