How the Dalai Lama’s succession unfolds will have major implications for millions of Tibetans, but also for the risk of conflict at contested Himalayan borders, for the future of U.S.-China competition, and for the viability of China’s efforts to establish an alternative regional and international order. Beijing views Tibet as a “core interest,” and control over Tibetans and their culture is central to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of national rejuvenation. In preparation for the Dalai Lama’s passing, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is accelerating efforts to suppress Tibetan identity, consolidate CCP control over religious life and the selection of Tibetan reincarnations, and perfect its high-tech surveillance apparatus in Tibet.
Most other governments have not begun to seriously grapple with the far-reaching consequences of a Dalai Lama succession. Tibet is often framed solely as a human rights issue, leading policymakers to downgrade its importance. The Chinese government often warns against supposed “interference” in Tibet issues, convincing some governments to uncritically echo Beijing’s position or avoid the issue entirely.
Yet governments urgently need to reexamine their policy frameworks on Tibet, preparing for the geopolitical, economic, environmental, and humanitarian challenges the approaching Dalai Lama succession will spark. Heightened tensions along the Line of Actual Control and throughout the Himalayan region; aggressive economic coercion impacting water security, critical minerals, and cross-border trade; brazen transnational repression; and new domestic challenges within China will all interact in unpredictable and consequential ways.
To that end, this report offers a brief overview of the succession process, the complex array of players who will be affected, and the geopolitical risks and flashpoints a succession crisis will generate, concluding with recommendations for policymakers.
This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.
