Western media report that a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran is unlikely for now, and that the probability of a military conflict between the two countries could reach 90% in the coming weeks. Markets are already reacting: on February 18, oil prices rose about 4%, to $65 per barrel for WTI and $70 for Brent.
The main risk to the global economy is a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil consumption (around 20 million barrels per day) and roughly one-fifth of global LNG supplies, primarily from Qatar, passed in 2024. Although Iran is unlikely to impose a prolonged blockade, even temporary disruptions to shipping would cause supply delays and higher transportation costs. Oxford Economics previously forecast oil prices could rise to $115 per barrel in the event of escalation, and up to $150 in the case of a full blockade, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
Asian countries, which receive 84% of oil shipments through the strait, would be hit hardest, along with Europe, which relies on Qatari gas. Higher energy prices would inevitably impact consumers. Freight rates would also surge: after strikes in June 2025, the cost of chartering large tankers from the Persian Gulf to China more than doubled, from $20,000 to $50,000 per day.
Air travel could also be affected. Airspace closures and longer routes between Europe and Asia would increase fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions, potentially raising airline operating costs by up to 40%.
Iran is not only rich in oil, it ranks among the top ten countries in copper reserves (4–6% of global reserves). Any destabilization would strengthen China’s position as the main buyer of Iranian copper, but wartime conditions would make long-term mining investments highly risky.
In the event of conflict, investors would traditionally shift to safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar and widening credit spreads would complicate debt servicing for developing countries, forcing them to draw on reserves or tighten fiscal policy.
The main beneficiaries of escalation would be oil and gas exporters whose routes remain unaffected, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. Russia could benefit only under a moderate scenario with higher prices and preserved logistics. In a severe escalation, tighter maritime controls and higher insurance premiums could complicate exports.
Major energy importers in Asia and Europe, airlines, the logistics sector, and emerging markets with high external debt would likely suffer the most, facing a triple blow: weaker currencies, higher borrowing costs, and capital outflows.
