Even though U.S. soybean exports to China dropped to virtually zero at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year and the beginning of the 2025/2026 marketing year, shipments to other markets “surged” to their highest levels since 2018, according to USDA.
The marketing year begins Sept. 1 and runs through Aug. 31.
The shipments were largely driven by lower U.S. prices relative to Brazil, due to pressure from Chinese tariffs on U.S. products, according to the USDA’s grain and oilseeds outlook, released Feb. 19.
Argentina’s temporary elimination of export taxes last September led to a counter-seasonal surge in exports in November, further impacting U.S. global market share, according to the report.
USDA projects exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year will decline to the lowest level in 13 years, about 1.58 billion bushels, or 42.9 million tons, with a record-low share of 23% of global soybean trade.
The reduction reflects the tariff measures that impacted shipments to China, the report states. China imported an average 28.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the 2021/2022 through 2023/2024 marketing years.
Next year, U.S. soybean exports in the 2026/2027 marketing year are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, a recovery from the 2025/2026 forecast.
Despite the increase of 125 million bushels, share of U.S. exports in the global market “will likely continue its long-term downward trend,” the USDA report states, citing larger South American supplies, as Brazil harvests a record soybean crop, “which will bolster global stocks and extend exportable supplies into the U.S. harvest period.”
2024/2025 marketing year
U.S. soybean exports grew nearly 13% in the 2024/2025 marketing year over the previous year, according to a recent report from the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC).
The U.S. exported 68.7 million metric tons of U.S. soy, according to USEC.
Whole bean exports were up 10.7% year over year at 51.2 million metric tons; soybean meal up 13.9% at 16.3 million metric tons and soybean oil was up 304%, at 1.1 million metric tons, according to the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USEC).
The U.S. is primarily a whole bean exporter, but soybean meal exports are expected to continue to grow as more crush capacity comes online in the U.S., said Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association.
Soybean oil exports rose “sharply,” according to USSEC, led by purchases from India, the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils. The top five markets for U.S. soybean oil in the 2024/2025 marketing year were India, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Dominican Republic.
U.S. soybean farmers produced 4.37 billion bushels in 2023/2024 and 4.26 billion bushels in 2024/2025. They are projected to produce 4.45 billion bushels in 2026/2027.
China
China remained the largest market for the U.S. soybean industry in 2024/2025, receiving 22.6 million metric tons, a $9.8 billion market. That’s a slight decline in both value and volume, “but still the biggest market, by far,” Houston said.
“Even though China was down, we did see other markets buying more,” Houston said.
It’s too early to tell whether the increase will continue for the 2025/2026 marketing year, she said.
“Obviously, it began with pretty significant trade tensions with China,” she said.
Traditionally, China pre-purchases new crop beans in August before the beginning of the new marketing year. Last year, they didn’t do that, instead re-entering the market after an agreement between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in October, Houston said.
China has committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons for the remainder of the marketing year, and a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
“The question will remain: Does China stop purchasing if they hit $12 million or do they stay in the market?” Houston said.
Historically, China shifts its purchases of soybeans to Brazil’s harvest in the spring, she said.
Trump is slated to travel to China in April.
“We’re watching that very closely, just knowing that trade policy right now is very dynamic and can change quickly,” Houston said. “Our farmers continue to stress the need for certainty and market access with our biggest customer, while at the same time our partners at USSEC work to continue to diversify those markets and increase U.S. soy demand in other markets outside China.”
Top five growth markets
The top five growth markets for the U.S. soybean industry during the past five years are Turkey, up 342%; Vietnam, up 89%; Venezuela, up 68%; Colombia, up 48% and Bangladesh, up 40%, according to the export council.
USEC cited improved market access and rising demand for animal protein, including resolution of a market access issue in Turkey.
Houston, with the soybean association, expects growth to continue in those other markets.
She cited a recent reciprocal trading agreement between the U.S. and Bangladesh
“Other Southeast Asian countries do hold a lot of potential for increased imports of U.S. soy,” she said. “So I do think we will see some of those smaller markets continue to increase their demand for our product.”
