Overview of Key Events
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The US-Israel joint operation ignites the ‘Middle East powder keg’! What will happen to global markets on Monday?
At 2:28 Beijing time, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, causing a sharp escalation in regional tensions. On March 1st, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran subsequently stated that the Iranian armed forces’ ‘most intense offensive operation’ would soon begin, targeting bases belonging to Israel and the United States.
Investors are closely monitoring the potential impact on markets stemming from the weekend’s attacks on Iran. In the cryptocurrency market, the only continuously open trading venue over the weekend, prices completed a ‘V-shaped’ reversal after plunging and then surging sharply. This reflects deep divisions among investors regarding the trajectory of this conflict — a divergence that will be tested when global markets open on Monday.
Analysts believe that the direction of the market on Monday will depend on several key variables: whether the conflict can be quickly contained, whether crude oil supplies will suffer substantial disruptions, and how the political vacuum left by Khamenei’s death will evolve. The core issue revolves around whether this military action represents a one-off precision strike or the beginning of a prolonged conflict.
Among these factors, the potential threat to the oil market and energy supply has drawn particular attention. There is widespread concern that if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed or if energy facilities in countries such as Saudi Arabia are attacked, oil prices could experience severe volatility similar to the spike above $80 per barrel seen in June last year, delivering profound shocks to the global supply chain. Analysts suggest that ongoing developments must be closely monitored. If the situation deteriorates further, fluctuations in crude oil, gold, and silver prices, along with downward pressure on global stock markets, are likely to intensify.
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Will the ADP non-farm payroll data impact expectations for an interest rate cut?
Traders are likely to focus their attention on the US employment report for February, due out on Friday. Investors will scrutinize whether the stronger-than-expected January figures were merely a flash in the pan. Overall, unless the employment data is notably weak, it will be difficult to significantly alter expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. According to foreign media analysis, following January’s robust growth, US job creation may slow down in February, with hiring rates returning to a more moderate and potentially sustainable level. Economists predict that non-farm payrolls will increase by 60,000 jobs in February — less than half the number added at the start of the year — while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Before the release of non-farm payroll data, the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI reports scheduled for Monday and Wednesday respectively may also attract special attention. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicates that US economic growth is expected to rebound from 1.4% in the fourth quarter to 3.1% in the first quarter. If this forecast is confirmed by the ISM data, the US dollar may strengthen as investors increasingly believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to lower borrowing costs further. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and maintaining inflation at 2%, investors are likely to focus particularly on the employment and price components of the ISM survey.
The ADP private sector employment report released on Wednesday may also come under close scrutiny ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported strong employment figures for January, the ADP report showed sluggish private-sector job growth during the same month, while December’s JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest level since September 2020. This suggests that investors may require further improvement in labor market data before reducing bets on interest rate cuts.
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China will enter the ‘Two Sessions period’.
According to CCTV News, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress and the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference will open in Beijing on March 5 and March 4, respectively.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the main agenda for the CPPCC National Committee meeting includes: hearing and deliberating on the work report of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the report on the status of proposals since the third session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee; attending the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress as non-voting participants, hearing and discussing the government work report and other relevant reports, and discussing the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.
According to analysis by securities research reports, the market is highly focused on the tone set in the government work report regarding economic growth targets, fiscal and monetary policies, and clues related to the ’15th Five-Year Plan.’
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Broadcom, JD.com, and MiniMax are set to release their latest earnings reports.
In terms of US stock earnings reports, next week the chip giant Broadcom (AVGO.US) will release its latest earnings report, continuing the discussion on the AI investment boom in the US market. Optical communication stocks $Credo Technology(CRDO.US)$ , semiconductor stocks Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) , cybersecurity stocks $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)$ Space-related concept stocks $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)$ , and quantum computing stocks $Quantum Computing(QUBT.US)$ 、 $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US)$ will successively release their latest earnings results, and retailers Target Corporation (TGT.US) 、 Costco (COST.US) 、 The Kroger Co. (KR.US) will also announce their quarterly financial reports.
Regarding Chinese concept stocks, $JD.com (JD.US)$ / JD.com-SW (09618.HK) 、 $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ / $Bilibili-W(09626.HK)$ will disclose its latest financial report. One of the ‘dual AI heroes’ in Hong Kong stocks, $MINIMAX-WP(00100.HK)$ will release its first earnings report after going public on Monday.
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Jensen Huang to Attend Morgan Stanley TMT Conference; Apple Spring Launch Event to Be Held
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) Conference in San Francisco on March 4.
$Apple(AAPL.US)$ Starting from Monday, Apple will roll out its spring lineup of new products and host a media experience event on Wednesday. Apple CEO Tim Cook recently announced significant updates for the spring product launch, noting that multiple new products will be unveiled.
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Digital Spring Festival: The 2026 Mobile World Congress to be held from March 2nd to 5th
The 2026 Barcelona Mobile World Congress (MWC) will kick off on Monday. This year’s event, themed ‘The IQ Era,’ transcends the boundaries of traditional communication exhibitions, evolving into a global technology platform integrating artificial intelligence, communication technologies, robotics, and 6G foresight. Smartphones remain the core highlight of the exhibition, with domestic manufacturers such as Vivo, Xiaomi, Honor, and Red Magic showcasing groundbreaking new products to accelerate their global expansion strategies. International brands like Samsung are also responding with robust technological upgrades. Meanwhile, cutting-edge explorations in humanoid robots, deep integration of AI and communications, make this year’s exhibition an important barometer for the future development of the technology industry.
In addition, it is reported that $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ / Alibaba-W (09988.HK) Qwen will unveil its AI glasses at the 2026 Mobile World Congress, with pre-orders opening both online and offline starting March 2nd. According to insiders at Alibaba, apart from the AI glasses, Qwen plans to release other products such as an AI ring and AI earbuds later in the year, all targeting the global market.
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Reports indicate that DeepSeek will launch its latest large model, V4.
According to the Financial Times, DeepSeek will release its latest large model, V4, this week. Two informed sources revealed that this is a multimodal model capable of generating images, videos, and text. In terms of hardware compatibility, DeepSeek provides extensive support for domestic computing power. DeepSeek is committed to optimizing the V4 model to align with chips manufactured in China, a move expected to boost demand for its semiconductor products in the Chinese market and expedite the localization of AI model ‘inference’ processes.
As of the time of writing, DeepSeek has not officially responded to or confirmed any information regarding V4. All details have been sourced from media leaks, with most information focusing on the simplified version currently undergoing secret testing, known as V4 Lite.
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Eurozone February CPI to be released; UK focuses on Tuesday’s Spring Budget statement
In Europe, the preliminary February CPI data, set to be released on Tuesday, may become the focal point. In January, the annual rate of overall CPI in the Eurozone slowed from 1.9% to 1.7%, while core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, slightly decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%. A further slowdown in Eurozone consumer prices could raise concerns about whether a strong euro might eventually harm the broader economy, prompting market participants to increase expectations for contingency interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank at some point in the future.
The focus in the UK market will be on Tuesday’s Spring Budget statement. This semi-annual public finance report will be presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to Parliament, followed by the publication of gilt issuance plans by the UK Debt Management Office. Market expectations suggest that Reeves will announce improvements in fiscal conditions, including significant fiscal space. On the economic data front, the UK will release the final February manufacturing PMI on Monday, alongside January consumer credit and mortgage lending figures, as well as the Nationwide Building Society’s February house price index.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Monday (March 2)
Keywords: Minimax earnings report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Apple begins unveiling spring new products, MWC kicks off
In terms of economic data, the United States will release at 22:45$S&P Global (SPGI.US)$the final Manufacturing PMI, followed by the February ISM Manufacturing PMI at 23:00.
In terms of financial events, $Apple(AAPL.US)$ the company will begin unveiling its spring new products and host a media experience event on Wednesday; the Barcelona Mobile World Congress (MWC) will commence. Alibaba’s Qwen will unveil AI glasses at the 2026 Mobile World Congress, with online and offline pre-orders starting on March 2.
In terms of earnings, one of the ‘dual AI heroes’ of Hong Kong stocks, $MINIMAX-WP(00100.HK)$ will deliver its first earnings report since going public. $Norwegian Cruise(NCLH.US)$ will release its earnings report before the US stock market opens, $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)$ 、 $Credo Technology(CRDO.US)$ 、 $Quantum Computing(QUBT.US)$ will release earnings reports after the US stock market closes.
Tuesday (March 3)
Keywords: Sea/CrowdStrike Earnings Reports
In terms of economic data, Eurozone CPI figures for February will be released at 18:00.
In terms of financial events, the UK will release its Spring Budget statement.
In terms of earnings performance, Hong Kong-listed $Minmetals Resources (01208.HK)$ will release earnings reports today, $Sea(SE.US)$、 $Best Buy(BBY.US)$ 、 Target Corporation (TGT.US) will release its earnings report before the US stock market opens, $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)$ 、 $Gitlab(GTLB.US)$ will release earnings reports after the US stock market closes.
Wednesday (March 4)
Key events: Broadcom earnings report, Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, US ADP employment figures/ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Jensen Huang’s speech
In terms of economic data, domestically, China’s official manufacturing PMI for February will be released at 9:30, while RatingDog’s manufacturing and services PMI data will be disclosed at 9:45.
In Europe, from 16:50 to 17:30, the final readings of the services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK in February will be announced.
In the United States, the ADP employment figures for February will be published at 21:15, S&P Global’s final reading of the services PMI at 22:45, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February at 23:00.
Regarding financial events, the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference is being held in Beijing.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) Conference in San Francisco on March 4.
In terms of performance, Broadcom (AVGO.US) The latest earnings report will be disclosed after the US stock market closes, $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US)$ Similarly disclosed; before the US stock market opens, $Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US)$ 、 $Genius Sports(GENI.US)$ 、 $Ocugen(OCGN.US)$ Several stocks, including Ocugen, released earnings reports.
Thursday (March 5)
Keywords: Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress, JD.com/Bilibili Earnings Reports, Federal Reserve Beige Book, U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
In terms of economic data, the Challenger job cuts report for February in the U.S. was released at 20:30, while the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 and the January import price index month-over-month rate were released at 21:30. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for February was published at 23:00.
Regarding financial events, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress will convene in Beijing. At 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, which will serve as an important reference for the March FOMC meeting.
In terms of performance, $JD.com (JD.US)$ / $JD.com(JD.FTOLD.US)$ 、 $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ / $Bilibili-W(09626.HK)$ The earnings report will be released. $Ciena(CIEN.US)$ Will release earnings before the U.S. stock market opens. Costco (COST.US) 、 Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) Will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
Friday (March 6)
Keywords: US Non-farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate, Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, ZTE Corporation Earnings Report
In terms of economic data, the US February unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for February, and January’s monthly retail sales growth rate were released at 21:30.
In terms of performance, $ZTE Corporation (00763.HK)$ will release its earnings report today.
In terms of new stock offerings, Hong Kong-listed stocks $Estun Automation (02715.HK)$ 、 Zhao Wei Electromechanical (02692.HK) 、 Youlesai Shared (02649.HK) will commence after-hours grey market trading.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!
Editor/Jayden
