Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 12, 2026
4min read
Last updated: March 13, 2026
Quick Summary
A 10% surge in oil to $100+ per barrel amid Middle East conflict sparks sell-offs in equities, bond yields, and global markets, undermining expectations for 2026 Fed rate cuts, while gasoline prices soar past $3.50 nationwide.
How $100 Oil Is Shaking Global Markets and Economic Growth Forecasts
Global Market Reactions and Economic Implications
ORLANDO, Florida, March 12 (Reuters) – Global stocks fell on Thursday, slammed by a 10% spike in oil prices, spiking bond yields and a stronger dollar, all of which point to a deteriorating outlook for consumers, businesses and economic growth.
In my column today I argue that, although the “Trump always chickens out” strategy of buying beaten-down stocks on the assumption that the U.S. president backs down from his more extreme policies, the Middle East war may be a “TACO” too far.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
Recommended Reading on Market Turmoil
- Iran’s new supreme leader vows to keep Hormuz shut in defiant first remarks
- World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says
- Trump administration considers loosening US shipping rules to combat fuel price spike
- Iran oil shock prompts ECB hawks to seek 2021/22 rematch: Mike Dolan
- JPMorgan’s markdown to restrict lending to private credit firms, source says
Key Market Moves
Stock Market Performance
- STOCKS: S&P 500, the Dow, and MSCI World post lowest closes of the year. Brazil, Mexico -2.5%. Asia likely to open sharply lower on Friday.
Sector and Share Movements
- SECTORS/SHARES: S&P 500 utilities +0.7%, energy +1%; industrials -2.5%, consumer discretionary -2.2%. Airlines, travel stocks hit hard. Chevron +2.7%, Goldman Sachs, Boeing -4.4%.
Currency and Bond Market Reactions
- FX: Dollar highest since November. AUD -1%, biggest G10 FX loser. Emerging FX hit hard again – BRL, MXN, KRW, ZAR, CLP all down 1-2%.
- BONDS: Global selloff accelerates. U.S. 2-year yield jumps 11 bps to highest since August; 10-year Bund yield highest since Oct 2023; 10-year gilt yield biggest two-day rise since Feb 2024.
Commodities and Metals
- COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +10%, Brent back at $100/bbl. Average U.S. gasoline prices up to $3.60/gallon.
Today’s Talking Points
2026 Fed Rate Cut Bets Evaporate
And just like that, it was gone. Not so long ago – i.e., only a few weeks ago, before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran – many analysts were predicting three interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. As of Thursday, not even one U.S. rate cut in 2026 is fully priced in at all.
Traders have made it clear where they think the stagflation risks lie with oil at $100 a barrel, and the ‘transitory’ lessons of 2021-22 are weighing heavily too. No rate hikes are priced in yet though, and next week would be far too soon. Right? Let’s see what tomorrow’s PCE inflation figures hold.
Global Bond Rout
Zoom right out the curve, and geographically, and inflation fears really are intensifying, as the accelerating global bond market selloff shows. Investors are fleeing fixed income everywhere.
On Thursday, the two-year U.S. yield hit its highest since August, and the 2s/10s curve flattened the most since April; Germany’s 10-year yield is near 3% and the highest since October 2023, and UK yields are up 60 bps in two weeks.
Central Bank Bonanza
Central bankers are in an unenviable position, and could be forgiven for just wanting to close their eyes, sit on their hands and wish the unfolding crisis away. But many of them are under the spotlight next week in what will be one of the busiest weeks of central bank meetings in a long time.
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings
Here’s a rundown of who’s meeting next week: the central banks of Australia, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the euro zone, the UK and, of course, the Fed. The most likely to hike rates is the RBA, then possibly the BOJ, with the rest on hold. But if oil’s at, say, $120 or higher, you never know.
What Could Move Markets Tomorrow?
- Developments in the Middle East
- Energy market moves
- New Zealand manufacturing PMI (March)
- Euro zone industrial production (January)
- Germany wholesale inflation (February)
- UK trade (January)
- UK industrial production (January)
- Canada unemployment (February)
- U.S. PCE inflation (January)
- U.S. JOLTS job openings (January)
- U.S. GDP (Q4, 2nd estimate)
- U.S. University of Michigan inflation expectations (March)
- U.S. durable goods (January)
Additional Information
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
Key Takeaways
- •Oil prices topped $100/barrel as the Iran war disrupted crucial supply through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering stock market declines and bond yield spikes. (apnews.com)
- •The IEA announced an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, yet markets remain on edge due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. (axios.com)
- •U.S. gasoline prices have surged roughly 60 cents in under two weeks, reaching nationwide averages above $3.50 per gallon—pressuring consumers and complicating the economic outlook. (investing.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Trading Day: The destructive power of $100 oil
1How does $100 oil affect global stock markets?
A $100 oil price leads to a sharp decline in global stock markets due to increased costs, higher inflation expectations, and reduced consumer and business confidence.
2What was the immediate market reaction to the oil price spike?
Global stocks and emerging market currencies fell, bond yields spiked, and sectors like airlines and travel were hit hardest, while energy stocks gained.
3Which central banks are meeting next week and why is it important?
The central banks of Australia, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the euro zone, the UK, and the US are meeting, critical for rate decisions amid market turmoil.
4Are Fed rate cuts still expected in 2026?
No, market pricing now suggests no Fed rate cuts are expected for 2026 following the oil shock and inflation concerns.
5Which economic indicators should investors watch next?
Investors should monitor energy market moves, global inflation data, central bank decisions, and key reports like US PCE inflation and job openings.
