Global Market Risks Rise Amid Middle East Crisis and Oil Volatility

Global Market Risks Mount as Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices Soar

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Financial Market Impacts

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

Middle East Conflict Intensifies

So, now we have a Middle East war, an Iran with long-range ballistic missiles, and a clock ticking down to a scary deadline – how very reality TV. No doubt some news channel will soon have a red timer ominously counting the seconds in the corner of their screen.

US-Iran Standoff and Potential Consequences

Late Saturday, President Trump took to social media to announce Iran had 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz, or the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants. Trump set a Monday deadline of around 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT), thus ruining Tuesday morning for Asia.

Apparently, the first target would be the largest, which happens to be a nuclear plant. That would usually be prohibited under international law and potentially a major environmental disaster.

Iran’s Response and Regional Threats

Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz “completely” and to target energy and water infrastructure in neighbouring countries. Strikes on desalination plants would be particularly devastating.

Oil and Energy Market Volatility

Brent swung higher, then lower and is now up 0.5% in very choppy trade. That could be because the U.S. has allowed the sale of more Iranian and Russian oil already on tankers, meeting immediate demand.

However, the growing risk of longer-term shortages has lifted oil futures down the curve. September Brent, for instance, is up $1 at $92.90 suggesting high prices are here to stay. The story is similar for LNG, where reports suggest that there are seven tankers at sea with cargoes, but once those are delivered there will be no new supply from Qatar.

Global Shortages and Economic Fallout

There are already global shortages of jet fuel, bunker fuel for ships and fertiliser, promising to make travelling, shopping and eating all more expensive.

International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol is in Australia right now, warning the crisis is “very severe” and worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s put together.

Financial Market Repercussions

The inflationary pulse is hammering bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields touching eight-month highs of 4.4150%, in turn adding to borrowing costs for developed nations already struggling with budget deficits and debt.

Higher yields are also stretching equity valuations, while rising petrol and diesel prices will act as a brake on consumer demand and corporate profits. Investors have also aggressively repriced for central bank tightening, drastically so in some cases. A Fed rate cut is gone for this year, while the ECB is seen hiking 75 basis points and the BoE 85 basis points.

This has not gone down well in equity land, where the Nikkei has shed more than 3% and South Korea almost 6%. European stock futures are off 1.1% to 1.3%, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% or so.

Key Events to Watch

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

• Appearances by ECB board member Piero Cipollone, ECB chief economist Philip Lane
• EU March consumer confidence
• US January construction spending

(Editing by Sonali Paul)