In 2015, all United Nations Member States adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, an ambitious blueprint designed to foster peace and prosperity for people and the planet. At its core are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a universal call to action to eradicate extreme poverty, reduce inequalities, and combat climate change by balancing economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. As the United Nations proudly dubbed the 2020s the “Decade of Action” to accelerate progress toward these interconnected targets, the global community seems to have taken the mandate quite literally by trading climate summits for active battlefields and poverty alleviation for artillery procurement.
As the United Nations proudly dubbed the 2020s the “Decade of Action” to accelerate progress toward these interconnected targets, the global community seems to have taken the mandate quite literally by trading climate summits for active battlefields and poverty alleviation for artillery procurement.
While this irony is stark, the underlying reality is a systemic global regression. The 2030 Agenda relies heavily on multilateral cooperation, stable trade networks, and predictable financing. Recent geopolitical volatility has disrupted all three, shifting the world’s focus from human development to immediate military security. When a nation’s basic survival is severely underfunded, the redirection of global capital toward conflict guarantees a measurable retreat, rendering foundational targets like SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 13 (Climate Action) the ultimate casualties of a fractured world order.
The Capital Shift: From Development to Defence
Today, a significant portion of that capital is being redirected toward defence. By prioritising territorial and ideological disputes over collective progress, state capital is being rapidly diverted away from healthcare and infrastructure. Global military spending has surpassed US$2.7 trillion, marking the steepest increase since the end of the Cold War. This militarisation is proving disproportionately devastating for the Global South. As wealth is funnelled into war, developing nations face an annual SDG financing gap of roughly US$4.0 trillion as of 2024.
Figure 1: Range of estimates of annual SDG financing gaps in developing countries (USD Billion)
Source: Matzner and Steininger 2024
The Russia-Ukraine war illustrates the scale of this financial diversion, where the capital needed to clear landmines, rebuild housing, and restore power grids in one European country exceeds the annual gross domestic product of many developing nations. To be sure, a spectrum of high-intensity conflicts currently fractures the global order, each generating localised devastation while exporting economic instability across borders.
Table 1: Major Global Conflicts and their Sustainability Impacts
| Conflict, Region & Timeframe | Primary Drivers & Escalation | Humanitarian & Economic Impact | Direct SDG Casualties |
| DRC / M23 Rebellion (Central Africa, escalated since 2021) | Complex internal and regional dynamics centred on resource competition and local governance challenges. | Millions internally displaced; systemic disruption of critical mineral supply chains (like cobalt and copper) strictly necessary for the global green energy transition. | SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 16 (Peace & Institutions). |
| Myanmar Civil War (Southeast Asia, since 2021) | Internal political transitions resulting in widespread domestic unrest and prolonged armed conflict. | Severe economic contraction; complete collapse of public health and education systems; mass cross-border displacement destabilising neighbouring economies. | SDG 3 (Good Health), SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 8 (Economic Growth). |
| Russia-Ukraine War (Eastern Europe, escalated since 2022) | Escalating geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes leading to a major regional conflict and shifts in European security dynamics. | International aid is increasingly committed to reactive physical rebuilding rather than proactive sustainable development; for instance, an estimated $486 billion is required for Ukraine’s reconstruction. | SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 7 (Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Infrastructure). |
| Israel-Gaza Conflict (Middle East, escalated since 2023) | Long-standing historical tensions culminating in acute conflict, resulting in severe infrastructural and humanitarian challenges. | Near-total decimation of Gaza’s physical and social infrastructure, erasing decades of human development and pulling regional capital into active military mobilisation. | SDG 8 (Economic Growth), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), SDG 16 (Peace & Institutions). |
| Sudan Civil War (North Africa, since 2023) | Internal conflict between factions over governance structures and resource allocation during a transitional political period. | Active conflicts trigger catastrophic domestic losses, with the civil war driving a projected 42% GDP contraction and tens of billions in industrial losses, leading directly to institutional failure, widespread hunger, and deep regional poverty. | SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health). |
| Iran Crisis & Gulf Escalation (Middle East, escalated since 2026) | Heightened regional tensions and maritime security challenges involving multiple state and non-state actors in the Middle East. | Severe Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, threatening 20% of global oil/LNG. This drives up global freight costs and inflation, disproportionately eroding purchasing power in developing nations. | SDG 7 (Clean Energy), SDG 8 (Economic Growth), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption). |
Source: Author’s own, multiple sources
(Disclaimer: The information and data presented in this article were collated from multiple sources and independently fact-checked by the author, with Gemini 3 utilised to organise and structure this research into the final table format.)
Weaponised Supply Chains and Global Scarcity
Modern warfare does not remain contained within geographic borders, but disrupts the global supply chains necessary to achieve Zero Hunger (SDG 2) and Economic Growth (SDG 8). The current geopolitical landscape has increasingly turned trade routes, energy exports, and agricultural commodities into instruments of leverage. A stark example of this contagion is the escalating 2026 conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, which has severely disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. With roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies threatened, Brent crude prices immediately surged past US$80 a barrel. The energy shock from the Iran war threatens to derail developmental objectives by driving up global inflation, straining the current account balances of emerging economies, and slowing the green transition as nations scramble for immediate fossil fuel security. Early disruptions to global grain and fertiliser markets originating from the war in Ukraine similarly demonstrated how a regional conflict can immediately threaten food security in the Global South.
The energy shock from the Iran war threatens to derail developmental objectives by driving up global inflation, straining the current account balances of emerging economies, and slowing the green transition as nations scramble for immediate fossil fuel security.
Goal 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) is the necessary prerequisite for the rest of the 2030 Agenda. When state institutions fail, the resulting instability leads to mass migration, economic contraction, and a profound loss of human capital. The resulting displacement creates a global refugee crisis that strains the resources, educational systems, and healthcare infrastructure of host nations. Finally, the “Decade of Action” is proceeding, but its milestones are currently measured in terms of disrupted supply chains and increased military budgets rather than developmental progress. Achieving the SDGs requires a fundamental shift in global priorities, in which long-term international security cannot be separated from sustainable economic and human development. Until global capital and political focus are redirected from the war field back to development, any sustainability goals will remain systematically out of reach.
Soumya Bhowmick is a Fellow and Lead, World Economies and Sustainability at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy (CNED) at the Observer Research Foundation.
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