Global Markets Slide as Oil Surge Follows Middle East Tensions

Global Markets Tumble as Energy Shock Fears Return Amid Middle East Conflict

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

U.S. President’s Address and Investor Sentiment

In a 19 minute prime-time address, U.S. President Donald Trump squashed burgeoning hope among investors of an end to the war in the Middle East, saying Washington will hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.

Impact on Global Markets

With no timeline for an end to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and with the Strait of Hormuz staying closed, investors were quick to return to what they did in March: Selling stocks, buying U.S. dollars and sending oil prices higher.

Energy Shock and Oil Prices

Trump repeated calls for countries that rely on Gulf oil to “take the lead” and assume the burden of reopening the waterway on which Iran has a chokehold that has created what some market watchers have called the worst global energy shock in history.

Market Movements and Investor Strategies

The prospect of an end to the month-long war had lifted global stocks and knocked the dollar off recent highs over the past two trading sessions after a brutal March where soaring oil prices sent risk assets into a tailspin. 

But those moves were being reversed on Thursday after the speech as traders who had added risk this week were swiftly exiting those positions, bracing for a prolonged energy shock to spur worry over stagflation – rapid inflation with slow growth.

Regional Impacts and Future Outlook

So Brent crude futures are once again well above $100 a barrel, while U.S. stock futures and European futures point to an ugly open with both down more than 1%.

Over in Asia, which has borne the brunt of the oil shock as most of the economies in the region heavily rely on energy from the Middle East, it was a sea of red with almost all bourses sliding sharply. U.S. Treasuries were also down.

With most major Western markets closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday, investors could de-risk extensively, hoping to not get caught out by any weekend escalation.

Key Developments to Watch

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

• U.S. jobless data
• EIA weekly estimate of U.S. natural gas in underground storage

(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Christopher Cushing)