EU environment ministers were scheduled to meet on September 18 to discuss their 2040 climate target. But, according to people aware of the matter, a final call on climate target may be further delayed. The initial deadline for submission of NDCs for the 2035 period was February 2025. The new deadline is by end of September.

“The EU needs to update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement by September 2025. This extended deadline allows the United Nations climate secretariat enough time to assess the collective effect of all national climate plans, relative to the targets under the Paris Agreement, before the start of the COP30 climate change conference in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025. The EU’s NDC is formally adopted by the Council of the EU. The third NDC will have a time horizon of 2035, and is therefore linked with the EU climate target for 2040, which is to be adopted as an amendment to the European Climate Law under the Ordinary Legislative Procedure,” the EU Parliament Think Tank said in a post.

In a meeting, held under Chatham House rules, experts said political consensus will be key for the EU.

But, the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reversal of key climate and energy policies has impacted the talks, especially certain bilateral measures that America has been taking, which make it difficult for some states to act, according to experts. But, the EU NDC may come through around or just before COP30, other experts said.

“Taking decisions by unanimity among 27 countries takes time, thus the EU is set to miss the second NDC deadline. This is embarrassing in a year where their leadership would be needed more than ever given the US’s stance. However, it would be better to submit a strong NDC shortly before COP than a very weak one now,” said Linda Kalcher, executive director, Strategic Perspectives.

The second EU NDC, submitted in December 2020, sets a 55 % domestic net GHG emissions reduction target for 2030 compared with a 1990 baseline. For the 2040 period, the European Commission has proposed a 90% net emissions reduction target compared with the 1990 baseline, but this needs to be adopted by all. The EU has a goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

The experts, at the meeting, identified issues that are making 2025 a particularly difficult year for climate action, including geopolitical turbulence, ongoing fragmentation and heightened tensions; a continued pushback on mitigation efforts in the negotiations from some parties; the US pulling out of the Paris agreement and reversing domestic climate policy/regulation and a weaker political leadership by the G7 and G20.

But, parties also understand that climate action makes economic sense, they pointed out. Clean energy investments were double of fossil fuel investments in 2024 and 81% of renewable capacity installed in 2023 was cheaper than fossil fuels. Investing $1 in adaptation yields more than $10 in social and economic benefit over 10 years, research by the World Resources Institute has indicated.

The crisis is getting worse. Increases in concentration of greenhouse gasses have led to 1.1˚C of warming between 1850 and 1900. The Arctic is ice-free in the summer, most permafrost is lost and sea levels are rising. With unchanged emissions levels, global warming of 2˚C will be exceeded in the 21st century, the experts said.

The UN’s Emissions Gap report, which synthesises the information from NDCs to give parties an understanding of how their NDCs will close the emissions gap and provide projections for warming, has a deadline of September 30 to consider NDCs, according to those aware of the matter. Presently, the report has only 29 NDCs to consider because the EU, China, India, several major economies are yet to announce their NDCs for the 2035 period. The Emissions Gap report is expected to be published in the first week of November, just ahead of COP30 in Belem, Brazil.

Without having information about how the G20’s new NDC targets look, it may be difficult to give a picture if the gap is being closed. The percentage of the global emissions covered presently is relatively very small. It is a very different geopolitical situation, not just compared with last year but compared with a few years ago, many more challenges and a tendency to not prioritise climate as much as what has been seen over the past 10 years in general, an expert who has been following the key UN report, said.

Interestingly, for the US which has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, the Biden administration had submitted its NDC 3.0 in December last year. It is also one of the issues that experts are assessing as to how such reports adequately and factually reflect the current situation, including that of the US.

In April, President Xi Jinping committed that China will announce a comprehensive emissions reduction plan, covering for the first time all economic sectors and greenhouse gases. The NDC may be unveiled this month, experts said. China’s current NDC includes achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

HT reported on September 3 that the UN Climate head has invited heads of states and governments to showcase their nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets at the United Nations Secretary General’s High-Level Special Event on Climate Action, in New York on September 24.

In a letter to 196 parties to the Paris Agreement and observer organisations and states, Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), called on all parties to announce their NDCs by the end of September.

“Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs 3.0, must be submitted as soon as possible. Submissions by the end of September will be included in the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report. This report, published prior to COP 30 in Belem, will provide an important update of progress thus far,” the letter, seen by HT, said.

The Paris Agreement is based on a five-yearly ambition cycle. All parties must submit NDCs with a 10-year span every five years. Every NDC must “represent a progression” beyond the party’s previous NDC and “reflect its highest possible ambition”. The first set of NDCs was submitted in 2015, the second round of NDCs was due in 2020, and the third is due in 2025.

(This reporter is in Copenhagen as part of Danida Fellowship Centre’s Learning Programme)