The current world order is under siege, and so is the collective bargaining power of the Global South. With conflict, crises and chaos, the three Cs resulting in political insecurities and economic rivalries, development issues have visibly taken a backseat. As countries focus on sharpening their geopolitical and geoeconomic playbooks, the Global South and its narrative of establishing credible partnerships are in dire straits. With increasing economic and political trouble mounting, the developing economies are compelled to diversify their alliances in a bid to procure critical resources, essential for their basic survival and ensuring strategic presence. The current state of affairs can only be handled via purposeful partnerships that should emanate from the Global South.
With increasing economic and political trouble mounting, the developing economies are compelled to diversify their alliances in a bid to procure critical resources, essential for their basic survival and ensuring strategic presence.
The Three Cs of Global Order
What began as a regional conflict swiftly escalated into a global chaos in the form of ‘Epic Fury’—an operation declared by President Trump with the support of the Israeli forces. On February 28, when the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint armed combat against Iran, killing the country’s supreme leader, Iran struck retaliatory blows by shutting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s move to block the passage of resources—nearly one-fifth of the global oil supply moves through the Strait—has perceptibly put the world on the brink of economic and developmental crises. For instance, international demand for gasoline (16 percent), diesel (10.3 percent), kerosene (19.4 percent) and crude oil (30.7 percent) supplies, primarily fulfilled through the Hormuz, currently stands crippled. A natural narrow waterway shared by Iran and Oman linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, the Strait is a critical chokepoint for transporting oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran departing the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Volume of global seaborne-trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz before theFebruary 28 crisis
Source: UNCTAD, 2026
Apart from the natural gas exports and oil products, the Strait also forms a pathway for sea-borne trade in fertilisers, such as ammonia and nitrogen, exported primarily by the Gulf to countries in the Global South like Brazil, Sri Lanka and Sudan. In fact, this particular variety of fertilisers is known to be the best in the market, possessing key ingredients not readily available anywhere else, thus exacerbating the crisis—a stark repeat of the Russia-Ukraine crisis that left fertiliser prices soaring.
In such a scenario, disruption in the supply chain corridor of the Hormuz naturally impacts agricultural costs, farming productivity, and ultimately food prices for the developing economies. In other words, the Global South’s developmental gains are under threat.
Global South’s Geoeconomics in Dire Straits
Volatility—geoeconomic or geopolitical— for developing economies is no stranger, yet it accelerates a gamut of political instabilities, complex economic uncertainties, and deepens development deficits. As the impact of the war gradually intensifies in duration and scale, developing economies face new types of price shocks, high revenue losses, escalating debt services and spiralling inflation.
As per the Oil Market Report released by IEA in early March, since the outbreak of the crisis, benchmark crude oil prices spiked from US$ 20 per barrel to US$ 92 per barrel. With major oil importers based in Africa and Asia absorbing the primary impact, a prolonged delay in accessing fuel and fertiliser creates a domino effect of energy disruption for the Global South. Some of the poorest countries, including Sudan, Pakistan, Tanzania, Somalia, and Mozambique, remain highly dependent on imported fertilisers from the Gulf, therefore face the threat of steep agricultural costs and skyrocketing food prices (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Share of Fertilisers via sea-borne trade from the Persian Gulf in 2024
Source: UNCTAD, 2026
As per Fitch Ratings, in Northern Africa, Egypt, as a net oil importer, has reportedly lost around US$ 6 billion of foreign investors’ portfolio out of its market once the crisis began. Asian economies, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Indonesia, are also exposed to the energy vulnerabilities and economic disruptions. For instance, India has restricted the liquified petroleum gas (LPG) supply for commercial purposes by prioritising domestic, residential and transport needs.
Global South’s Skill of Collective Bargaining Under Siege
Beyond business risks and global market impacts, a closer look at the crisis, however, reveals a deep-seated apathy and ambiguity over violation of international law, a weakened development agenda and the persistence of the traditional ‘might is right ’ paradigm. Despite the much-talked-about rising agency of the Global South in the past few years, international conflicts and risks to economic security are volatile, unregulated and largely unchecked.
A majority of the countries from the Global South—China, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia and Cuba—have condemned the war, terming it as ‘illegal and unacceptable, having imperialist undertones’. Naturally, the Iran conflict has placed under the scanner the actual veracity of the Global South to collectively bargain and negotiate with the traditional Western powers to realise shared targets. In this sense, the crisis underscores a multi-pronged impact—political, economic and developmental—on the Global South’s bargaining capacity to support multilateralism.
The Iran conflict has placed under the scanner the actual veracity of the Global South to collectively bargain and negotiate with the traditional Western powers to realise shared targets.
The question arises: why is the Global South’s collective bargaining weak at this juncture in international politics? One evident explanation stems from the historical reliance on the notion of ‘hegemonic stability’. Despite repeated calls by the Global South for reformation of the multilateral institutions to better reflect realities of the contemporary international order, hegemons in the Global North remain reluctant. Second, the Global North is more interested in gaining geopolitical leverage by encouraging trade protectionism and trade-restrictive practices instead of liberalising trade. Third, given the rise of the emerging economies, like China, dominating the global manufacturing scene, without any intention of changing their course in the coming years, the Global North is cautious not to enable the emergence of another ‘China’ and ruin their chances of economic security and prosperity.
The Road Less Travelled: In Pursuit of Partnerships
Can India’s approach of multi-vector diplomacy and development partnerships provide an alternative in such chaotic times? By abstaining from overt alignment, India’s position on the ongoing crises is rooted in its historical ‘balancing act’ of non-alignment. Based on the principles of ‘dialogue and diplomacy’ to de-escalate tensions between the warring sides, this multi-vector approach revolves around respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the actors involved in the region, thus maintaining close and cordial relations with all.
For India, safeguarding its strategic autonomy from external influence occupies vital importance. This can also be interpreted from the lens of ‘development diplomacy’, a policy approach popularised by Prime Minister Narender Modi in 2015 to expand India’s outreach in the external world. Indeed, economic diplomacy provides a major thrust—diplomacy that goes beyond the realm of war, peace, security, conflict and strategic interests to include wide-spanning economic prosperity for all.
A slew of development shocks—dismantling of the United States Administration for International Development (USAID), economies adopting an inward-looking stance, trade protectionism and fiscal fluctuations— have undermined the declining public trust in institutional frameworks.
One of the striking examples of India’s development diplomacy was evident during its G20 Presidency in 2023. By creating an institutional platform bringing together countries of the Global South, i.e., the Voice of the Global South Summit under a common ambit, New Delhi attempted to piece together a structured conversation on inclusivity and sustainable development. Capacity-building interventions in different sectoral areas like digital, energy, connectivity, agriculture, food security, and human capital were streamlined to encourage local capacity. Indeed, India’s diplomatic manoeuvre hinges upon multi-centric partnerships based on mutual respect, shared interests and collective ambition.
Yet partnerships can only flourish when robust institutional mechanisms are established, combined with public trust. A slew of development shocks—dismantling of the United States Administration for International Development (USAID), economies adopting an inward-looking stance, trade protectionism and fiscal fluctuations— have undermined the declining public trust in institutional frameworks. Following the pandemic and the subsequent eruption of global conflicts, socio-economic development has been hit the hardest.
Given the ambiguity surrounding geopolitical and geoeconomic configurations, the Global South’s position becomes ever more inevitable. Adopting a middle path is a challenge, but the Global South should focus on short-term goals. Small-scale and issue-based alliances should be fostered that can lead to new models of partnerships. Also, pushing for reforms by enhancing engagement with the Global North through dialogue is critical. As observed, international order is marred by numerous crises resulting in energy shocks and leveraging trade pessimism, yet the three Cs of global order can only be addressed via purposeful partnerships emanating from the Global South.
Swati Prabhu is a Fellow with the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy at Observer Research Foundation.
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