Conflicts have a substantial connection to geopolitics, security, and human tragedy, yet there is another, less-discussed dimension of aggressive conflicts: their impact on the global climate. Modern warfare uses massive explosives, gunpowder, and missiles, among other weapons, which significantly contribute to atmospheric pollution and climate change.
The ongoing situation in the Middle East involving the USA and Iran has increased the relevance of examining the environmental footprint of this armed conflict. Warfare explosives release large quantities of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen compounds, which contribute not only to local air pollution but also to atmospheric warming.
Air and land military operations further multiply these emissions through excessive fuel consumption, releasing tonnes of carbon dioxide into the air. A 2022 study by Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Conflict Environment Observatory states that 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to military activities.
Environmental damage is evident from various historical conflicts, including World War II, the Vietnam War, and the Gulf War. In WWII, massive devastation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki was witnessed by the world, causing the deaths of millions of people, animals, and vegetation. Black rain further contaminated the soil and water. Long-term environmental impacts are associated with the long-lived radionuclide Caesium-137. This radioactive pollutant remained in the soil for a long period; even crops grown on such land are contaminated. Moreover, livestock products are also affected, making them unfit for consumption.
These radioactive pollutants have an even longer effect on the climate and atmosphere. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster in 2011, the impacts are still not negligible even after many years.
The Vietnam War witnessed extensive forest burning, causing deforestation, which reduced the region’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and hence accelerated climate change. The Gulf War of 1991 is an even more dramatic example: more than 600 oil wells were ignited, and the fires burned for months. These massive fires released millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, adversely contributing to climate change.
The Ministry of Climate Change & Environment has recently mentioned that Pakistan loses almost 1% of its GDP each year to climate-related damage, despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions
The Israel–Gaza war has produced 32.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 15 months. Over three years, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has produced 230 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Such conflicts not only have devastating effects on ecosystems but also poison livelihoods for generations. Unfortunately, accountability for this climate damage in real terms is nearly zero.
A project by Brown University studying the Costs of War has estimated that US-led military operations since 2001 have added around 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions to the environment, which is quite close to the annual emissions of major industrial economies like Japan and Germany.
Time has changed, but conflicts still generate substantial emissions. The current military conflict in the Middle East involving the USA is similarly destroying not only lives, vegetation, and infrastructure but also power plants, releasing enormous greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants. If it continues, the damage will multiply with the destruction of refineries and pipelines, similar to the Gulf War oil fires, and will worsen global emissions statistics.
The Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.11°F each decade since 1850, amounting to 2°F in total. However, since 1982, the rate of global warming has increased to more than three times this pace, at 0.36°F per decade. The year 2024 has been marked as the warmest, being 2.32°F above the 20th-century average of 57°F. This change in the Earth’s energy balance due to rising surface temperatures is responsible for environmental and ecological processes that affect all life on Earth. Precipitation rates, the carbon cycle, and glacier melting are all associated with this process.
According to the US Climate Science Special Report (2017), if emissions had remained the same as in 2000, projections suggested that the Earth’s temperature would be 10.2°F warmer by the end of the century. However, since emissions have increased enormously, it is quite evident that we can expect a significantly higher rise in temperature than projected.
The threats posed by global warming are evident from recent natural disasters, including the devastating floods in Pakistan in 2022 and 2024, heavy rains in Kenya and East Africa in 2024, deadly floods in Poland, Italy, Brazil, and Austria in 2024, rainforest fires in early 2024, massive fires in California in 2025 and Canada in 2024, and droughts in Africa (2020–2022).
The Ministry of Climate Change & Environment has recently mentioned that Pakistan loses almost 1% of its GDP each year to climate-related damage, despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions. Experiences of 53°C heatwaves, along with melting glaciers, underline the urgency of restoring natural ecosystems and building a climate-resilient system. NDC 3.0 has set a target of reducing emissions by 50% by 2035, requiring approximately 565.7 billion dollars in investment.
Pakistan is planning to combat climate change using its limited resource base, but in the current state of conflict—where climate change driven by global warming does not recognise national borders—are we safe? In fact, the world is in dire need of highlighting the urgency of global cooperation, responsible conflict management, and a much stronger international accountability system to address the climate cost of conflict. Otherwise, global sustainability is at its greatest risk.
