Tensions over potential disruptions in the supply of critical minerals and trade barriers are fueling market volatility, and the Latin American mining industry is expected to play an increasingly important role in meeting the growing demand and supporting the energy transition.
In this interview with BNamericas, Afonso Sartorio, EY’s Latam mining & metals lead, suggests key formulas to address the uncertainty and the transformation period that companies in the sector are undergoing.
BNamericas: Will international geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty surrounding critical mineral supply chains continue to influence the market next year?
Sartorio: Competition in the mining supply chain has increased, as governments raise tariffs, restrict exports, and implement policies to secure control over mineral extraction and processing for national interests and global competitiveness. China has doubled down on securing supplies of strategic minerals. China’s export restrictions on seven key rare earth elements and processing technologies created immediate bottlenecks.
In the US, national security concerns are the stated reason behind tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, as well as tariffs imposed on semi-finished copper products and copper intensive derivative products. Tariffs haven’t directly targeted lithium, nickel, or cobalt; however, the ongoing uncertainty has led to increased volatility in the market.
BNamericas: How much does Latin America’s mining supply influence that volatility?
Sartorio: Policies in South America and Africa will influence global supplies and prices, for instance, as these geographies will be the new frontiers for expansion to meet supply gaps. The outcome of Chile’s presidential election in November will be an important signpost for the future policy direction of resource-rich countries.
Disrupted trade routes and supply relationships will continue to lead to new players seeking to fill the void. Geopolitical uncertainty could have broader impacts on EV sales, the progress of the energy transition and global economic growth. A downturn would lead to lower demand for metals and minerals.
BNamericas: How can the global metals and minerals supply gap be closed?
Sartorio: First, finance and reduce the risk in mine development. To that end, use government loan guarantees, concessional funding, advance-purchase deals, and blended finance to attract investment into new mines and processing. Companies can also share processing sites, tailings or energy infrastructure, and transport to speed up development and cut capex and operating costs.
Then, with recycling and urban mining. Companies can unlock new supply by extracting minerals from mine tailings, waste and end-of-life products. At the same time, substitution in certain end-use applications can reduce the demand for energy transition minerals. Leveraging public-private partnership focused on deploying innovations on new recycling technologies is also key.
Another important aspect is expanding refining and processing capacity to lower costs and capture more of the value chains. Companies could leverage government incentives, such as the US$800m US tax credits for recycling, processing, and refining projects; develop regional processing hubs; form long-term partnerships and JVs to set up facilities; and secure offtake agreements with downstream customers to lock in demand and pricing.
BNamericas: How has the role of mining companies been changing with respect to their position as consumers of new energy solutions?
Sartorio: There’s an evolution from passive off-takers to active system partners. Mining companies are moving beyond purchasing power to actively contracting new clean energy and even, co-managing distributed energy resources, thereby redefining their role within the energy ecosystem.
For example, Ganfeng Lithium has invested US$190mn in a solar park to power its Mariana lithium project in Argentina’s Salta province.
Moreover, mining companies can prioritize shared energy infrastructure models that serve both operational needs and local community electrification. Also, to achieve collaboration across energy ecosystem, because expanding the consumer ecosystem requires collaboration with utilities, transmission and distribution operators, communities and Indigenous partners, and OEMs/EV aggregators for fleet flexibility.
Another aspect is to take advantage of the leverage supportive policy framework in the region. Latin America offers diverse energy market opportunities, such as Brazil’s expanding free market enables flexible contracting, Argentina’s 2024–2025 reforms open long-term PPA opportunities, and Mexico’s Clean Energy Certificate obligations support strategic renewable participation.
BNamericas: Where does Latin American mining stand in the context of the global energy transition?
Sartorio: Latin America is a critical supplier of transition minerals, 35% of global lithium and 40% of copper, making it indispensable to global decarbonization efforts. The region also achieved 70% renewable electricity generation in April 2025, surpassing 2024 levels, and up 5% year-over-year to 158 TWh.
Latin America’s mining sector is strategically positioned to lead in low-carbon production by harnessing its abundant renewable energy resources. Companies are increasingly pursuing renewable energy for its mines.
BNamericas: Which minerals have the highest demand over the next 10 years, and the greatest likelihood of market shortages?
Sartorio: Clean energy policies, combined with evolving economic trends, such as data centres, defence and ongoing industrialization, are driving up mineral demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts mineral demand for clean energy technologies will double by 2030 under current policy conditions, with even greater growth anticipated in more ambitious climate scenarios.
However, supply chains are geologically concentrated and slow to expand, with mining projects often requiring over a decade for development. Underinvestment during low-price periods has left a supply pipeline insufficient for future needs, risking market deficits by the late 2020s.
Lithium and copper top the list with the largest deficits projected, but nickel, graphite, and even tin and rare earths could all hit crunch points without proactive measures. Managing these risks will be critical for governments and industries alike. Failure to secure adequate mineral supply could slow down EV rollout, renewable energy deployment, and even compromise tech and defense sectors. On the other hand, those who invest in and develop robust critical mineral supply chains stand to benefit economically and strategically in this new era.
