A New Geopolitical Corridor: How the U.S. Is Challenging China in the South Caucasus

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a symbolic diplomatic gesture. It reflects a deeper structural shift in Washington’s foreign policy priorities during President Donald Trump’s second term. What we are witnessing is not episodic engagement but the consolidation of a new strategic direction.

At the core of Trump’s foreign policy recalibration lies a gradual pivot away from Europe toward Asia. The central axis of this strategy is long-term competition with China. Within this broader framework, the South Caucasus is no longer viewed as a peripheral region. Instead, it is emerging as a critical geopolitical corridor linking the Black Sea basin, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

If examined through the lens of strategic objectives, Vance’s visit serves three interconnected political purposes.

The first is countering China’s expanding influence. Beijing has significantly increased its economic and infrastructure footprint across Eurasia, particularly in Central Asia. Through transport corridors, energy investments, and political engagement, China continues to strengthen its long-term position. For the Trump administration, building alternative routes and partnerships in the South Caucasus represents a mechanism to limit China’s strategic penetration into a region that connects Europe and Asia.

The second objective is containing Iran. The South Caucasus occupies a geographically sensitive position adjacent to Iran’s northern borders. Alternative transit corridors, including the Zangezur corridor, as well as diversified energy routes for gas, oil, and other critical resources, carry substantial geopolitical weight. From Washington’s perspective, strengthening connectivity that bypasses Iran reduces Tehran’s leverage while simultaneously enhancing Western strategic flexibility.

The third goal involves expanding U.S. presence in what has traditionally been considered Russia’s sphere of influence. The post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus, has long been an area of Moscow’s dominant influence. However, the regional balance has shifted. The United States now sees an opportunity to advance politically and economically into spaces that were previously constrained by Russian leverage. This does not necessarily imply direct confrontation, but rather gradual strategic repositioning.

Importantly, Vance’s visit follows a series of meetings between President Trump and Central Asian leaders, suggesting that Washington increasingly views the South Caucasus and Central Asia as a unified geopolitical belt. This broader regional approach aligns with efforts to reshape trade and transit architecture across Eurasia in ways that serve American long-term strategic interests.

The exclusion of Georgia from the itinerary is also notable. Current political dynamics in Tbilisi are less favorable for Washington and its European partners than in previous years. As a result, the immediate focus has shifted toward Baku and Yerevan, where recent developments have created new diplomatic openings.

The normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated in part by Trump’s diplomatic engagement, has fundamentally altered the regional landscape. The easing of tensions has opened pathways for expanded economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and potentially even security dialogue. For the United States, this transformation creates space to operate not merely as a crisis mediator but as a long-term stakeholder in shaping regional order.

At the same time, U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus has always involved a delicate internal balancing act. Azerbaijan carries significant strategic value for Washington due to its energy resources, geographic position, and role in alternative transit corridors. However, the influence of the Armenian diaspora in the United States remains an important domestic political factor.

The Armenian community in America is particularly concentrated in California, a state that plays a decisive role in U.S. electoral politics and has long been a stronghold of the Democratic Party. No American president can entirely ignore this dynamic. Consequently, Trump’s calculations likely combine foreign policy considerations with domestic political realities.

Nonetheless, the broader trajectory is clear. Engagement in both Central Asia and the South Caucasus is becoming an increasingly important pillar of Trump’s second-term foreign policy agenda. The region is being integrated into a wider strategy aimed at countering China, constraining Iran, and recalibrating the balance of influence in the post-Soviet space.

The South Caucasus is once again entering the arena of great power competition, and Washington intends to play a serious and sustained role in it.