The global tanker shipping industry stands at a crossroads as crude and product carriers face starkly different market conditions over the next two years, according to a new analysis from BIMCO’s shipping market team.
While crude tanker markets are expected to maintain relatively balanced supply and demand dynamics through 2026, product tankers face mounting pressure from a wave of new vessel deliveries that threatens to overwhelm modest demand growth.
“We forecast balanced supply and demand growth for the crude tanker market in 2026 but a weakening in 2027 as ship deliveries increase. Unfortunately, the product tanker market is expected to continue to weaken during both years as ship deliveries hit 15-year highs and supply therefore outpaces demand,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The analysis forecasts crude tanker demand growth of 1-2% in 2026 and 0-1% in 2027, with supply growth projected at 1.5% and 3.5% respectively. Product tankers face a more challenging outlook, with supply growth forecast at 5.5% for both years while demand is estimated to grow just 0.5-1.5%.
Geopolitical factors continue to play an outsized role in shaping tanker demand patterns. The Houthis have announced an end to their attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea following the ongoing Gaza ceasefire. However, the announcement has yet to trigger a significant increase in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal. Should shipping routes through the region fully normalize, BIMCO forecasts demand could fall by 2-3% compared to current projections.
Meanwhile, intensified Western sanctions targeting Russian oil exports have begun showing measurable effects. Recent data indicates a 20% reduction in crude tanker loadings from Russian ports, though product tanker operations appear largely unaffected. Russian oil volumes in floating storage have tripled in recent weeks, potentially signaling difficulties in finding buyers.
The International Energy Agency projects global oil oversupply could average 4.1 million barrels per day in 2026, which BIMCO expects will support continued inventory building and bolster crude tanker demand through next year. However, analysts anticipate this trend may reverse in 2027.
Oil demand patterns are shifting geographically, with the IEA predicting continued growth in refinery throughput and consumption across emerging Asian and African economies, while developed markets face stagnant or declining demand.
Any reduction in Russian exports would likely decrease demand for sanctioned vessels while potentially boosting mainstream tanker utilization as importers seek alternative supply sources.
“Despite an expected weakening of market conditions in 2027, crude tankers are overall forecast to fare better than product tankers during 2026 and 2027. Mainstream crude tankers could see further support if Russian exports suffer due to sanctions. On the other hand, both sectors could see slower demand if Red Sea routings normalise,” Rasmussen said.
