Bitcoin ETFs took in $471 million in net inflows on the day, the highest single-day figure since February 25. On Polymarket, the contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 38% YES, up from 30% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Bitcoin $100,000 market sits at 38%, an 8-point jump in one week. The Bitcoin $150,000 market is flat at 10% YES, showing that bettors are pricing in a much lower probability of Bitcoin nearly tripling from here.
Why it matters
The $471 million inflow is the largest daily ETF figure in nearly two months, and it coincides with US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices above $114 per barrel. When oil spikes, investors tend to look at alternative stores of value, and the ETF flow data suggests institutional money is treating Bitcoin as a hedge against both geopolitical risk and inflation.
What to watch
Daily trading volume on the $100,000 contract is $1,776 in actual USDC, and moving the market 5 points requires $10,824, which points to reasonably firm support at current levels. The $150,000 contract is much thinner at $411 in USDC traded, meaning a smaller amount of capital could move that price sharply.
At 38¢, a YES share on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 pays $1, a 2.63x return. That bet pays off if institutional inflows continue and geopolitical tensions don’t collapse broader risk appetite. Watch for additional ETF flow data from BlackRock and Fidelity, and any ceasefire developments that could shift the macro picture.
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