BTC on track for fifth weekly decline, first since 2022, geopolitical risks mount

Bitcoin is on course to print its fifth consecutive weekly loss, which would mark the first such streak since March to May 2022, when bitcoin went down for nine consecutive weeks.

As of Thursday Asia time, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is already down roughly 3% on the week, below $67,000, according to CoinDesk market data, and leaving it vulnerable to another weekly red close.

Macro pressures are adding to the technical weakness. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has amassed its largest concentration of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. While Washington is reportedly prepared to launch strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump has not made a final decision, with Polymarket bettors giving a 27% chance of strikes occurring by the end of the month.

The geopolitical uncertainty has lifted the dollar index to 97.7, its highest level since Feb. 6, while WTI crude oil has climbed to $65 from Wednesday’s $62 low. A stronger dollar and rising oil prices typically weigh on risk assets, creating additional headwinds for bitcoin, reinforcing a negative weekly close.

Bitcoin has declined by more than 50% from its October all-time high near $126,500 to levels as low as $60,000.

On a monthly basis, bitcoin has recorded five straight declines since October, the second-longest losing streak on record, surpassed only by the six-month slide from 2018 to 2019.

Against gold, bitcoin is down seven consecutive months relative to the precious metal, its longest stretch of underperformance in that pairing.