On my social media account I made a comment Friday night, just as Vladimir Putin was preparing to fly back home, that the Russian president’s visit is long on vibes and short on outcomes. A majority of those who responded seemed to agree. I feel that remark needs qualification.
In terms of tangible outcomes, Putin’s visit didn’t result in major defence deals. We didn’t get flashy announcements on S-500 Prometheus or Su-57 stealth fighter jets. Leave alone placing orders for missiles, drones or shiny new toys, India is worried that Russia, blocked out of western supply chains and lacking in critical components, is unable to meet the deadline on past commitments.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
The lease deal for a nuclear submarine was struck in 2019, but the Akula-class attack sub reportedly won’t be delivered before 2028. Two remaining consignments of the five S-400 squadrons – purchased in 2018 for $5.4 billion – are yet to arrive and won’t drop before next year, reports Times of India. New Delhi is increasingly vocal about these delays and recently
refuted a Bloomberg report that touted the submarine deal as ’new’.
More from Opinion
Truth to tell, headline announcements were not on the cards. Still, the visit didn’t result in any new announcements on, say, joint military exercises, any arrangements on sharing geospatial data, visible signifiers of stronger defence-industrial collaboration, or any tangible steps for capacity-building in niche military technologies. We also didn’t hear any new developments in the civil nuclear sector such as construction of SMRs (small modular reactors) of Russian design in India, a clean electricity technology where Russians have domain expertise. A Russian offer was on the table.
The trend line, however, is promising. The joint statement points out that in response to “India’s quest for self-sufficiency, the partnership is reorienting presently to joint research and development, co-development and joint production of advanced defence technology and systems.”
That said, the Russian president’s visit marked a moment of immense significance in world politics where the dominant vibe was in itself a major outcome. Let me explain.
It is my contention that Putin’s arrival, the warmth and camaraderie on display during his stay, the full state embrace of the Russian president, the wide-ranging set of seemingly modest yet significant agreements – including on labour mobility, defence logistics, trade, technology, and the unwavering focus from both sides on nurturing the legacy of a trusted, time-tested and resilient partnership together reflects a firm geopolitical signalling, a display of India’s strategic autonomy and a decisive shift in power equation between the two sides.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
As always, context is everything. The Donald Trump administration’s intense efforts in cracking a peace deal on Ukraine has failed so far. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin at Kremlin but went nowhere despite a five-hour talkathon. Trump has blown hot and cold on Putin, at times appearing frustrated that his efforts are not bearing fruit. He has imposed 25% extra tariffs on India for buying Russian oil to curb an energy trade that is crucial for Indian economy and critical for Russia.
The international pressure on India to extricate itself from trade with Russia and dissociate from the close strategic partnership has peaked. Just ahead of Putin’s aircraft landing in India, accredited envoys of the UK, France and Germany excoriated the visiting Russian president in a joint article published by an Indian daily. The extraordinary article was a clear attempt at interference in India’s foreign policy and was written with an intent to embarrass New Delhi before Putin’s arrival on a state visit.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Apart from trying to drive a wedge between two close partners, the three envoys breached diplomatic norms to target Putin and make India a staging ground for Europe’s moral grandstanding against Russia. Faced with a rap from India’s external affairs ministry, an entirely justified position, the German government doubled down on its envoy’s actions.
In the words of former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal in NDTV, what the envoys did “was diplomatically unwarranted… Going directly to the public through the media was a way to make the point that resentment in Europe against India’s wooing of Putin remained, and that the Indian government had failed diplomatically to obtain the understanding of three major European powers for its policy towards Russia, with a connotation that this could impinge on efforts to build ever-closer India-Europe ties.”
Putin’s visit is therefore to be seen not from the prism of high summitry alone but an engagement that was carried out despite intense disapproval from the West. For refusing to sever its defence and energy ties with Russia, India has been at the receiving end of incessant moral posturing. It wasn’t that long ago when Navarro, the White House trade adviser, called India a “laundromat for Kremlin” and Trump’s commerce secretary Lutnick vowed to
“fix India”.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
So, when the prime minister rolled out the red carpet, and in a rare deviation from protocol went to the airport to personally receive the Russian president, enveloped Putin in a warm hug at the tarmac and drove away in the same vehicle for a private dinner at his residence, he was sending a clear geopolitical signal. It isn’t everyday that Modi goes to greet world leaders at the airport. Despite his several visits to India in the past, Putin himself has never been accorded that gesture before.
It wasn’t just an expression of warmth for a leader with whom Modi shares a good rapport and an enduring bond, it was a message to the West that Putin, who is subjected to western sanctions and the tag of a “war criminal”, is not isolated and India’s foreign policy prerogatives cannot be dictated by diktats from Washington, London or Berlin.
India was sending a message that Moscow remains central to its defence, energy and geopolitical calculus. The prime minister’s gesture, the banquet thrown by Rashtrapati Droupadi Murmu, the wall-to-wall press coverage and the 16 pacts that were signed between the two sides are a testament to New Delhi’s quiet refusal to link Ukraine war to India’s core interests.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
It was a simultaneous signal at Beijing that India retains access to Russian defence, energy and potential Eurasian connectivity, and the relationship complicates any China-Russia-Pakistan tango against India. And it was also a signal of reassurance to Moscow that India is not drifting into a US-led coalition, even as it diversifies defence ties and seeks better ties with the US and Europe.
In his media briefing, foreign secretary Vikram Misri alluded to the geopolitical significance of the India-Russia relationship, calling it “an important relationship, not just bilaterally, but in terms of its regional as well as global significance… it remains an important anchor for constructive engagement in a very complex geopolitical environment.”
Putin gets it. At the banquet organised in his honour at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, he said, “Russia and India are working together, shoulder to shoulder, to build a just, multipolar world order. We firmly believe that such an order must be based on the central role of the United Nations and on a balanced alignment of interests among all members of the international community… Overall, we work closely together to foster an atmosphere of security, trust, and peaceful cooperation across the vast Eurasian region: between our countries, among the peoples of this region, and throughout the world.”
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
I want to stress here that the geopolitical signalling aimed at different actors (the US, Europe or China) is different from India’s assertion of strategic autonomy that was also on full display during Putin’s visit. The crucial difference hinges on the fact while signalling is contextual, autonomy is a commitment, a choice, and comes with its own set of risks and rewards.
By putting himself at the centre of the choreography, prime minister Modi turned that choice into a political statement: India showed that its relationship with Russia cannot be seen through the prism of a third party but is borne out of enduring national interest, that it will engage Putin on its own terms, keep lines open to all major powers and present the balancing act as a marker of national strength than hedging.
This is not a performative defiance of the West, but a determined display of autonomous decision-making based on substantive national prerogatives (legacy, energy, defence, development) and a refusal to be bullied or sanctioned into compliance with Western preferences. And yet, New Delhi showed that it is aware of the costs involved in pursuing autonomous decision-making and exercised it more as a pragmatic player than an ideological adherent to the cause.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
For instance, even though Putin pledged uninterrupted fuel supply for India’s energy needs and questioned America’s hypocrisy on imposing sanctions on India to curb oil purchases from Russia, India adopted a cautious note on Russian energy procurement even though the flagship Urals crude is being offered right now at a hefty discount.
Asked a question on India’s energy security and whether India will keep up its import of Russian oil, foreign secretary Misri said, “Ensuring stable energy prices and secure supplies are the twin goals of our sourcing policy. And part of this, therefore, goes into the area of diversifying energy supplies. And our partners, traditional as well as new, understand this and appreciate this.
“They also appreciate that Indian companies will take, and I point to the fact that this is something that covers both private companies as well as public companies, because in both cases, these are publicly listed companies. They have fiduciary responsibilities. And therefore, these companies make decisions on the basis of evolving market dynamics on the basis of the commercial issues that they confront, while sourcing their supplies.”
In other words, mindful of the secondary sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, India’s private and state-owned firms are cutting energy imports from Russia and moving towards non-sanctioned entities. In October, India imported crude worth 17% less in volume terms compared to September, and posted a 31% reduction year-on-year.
Amid a transactional world, India needs to secure the interests of its people and keep its relationship lubricated with all major power centres. Russia remains a major power in its own right. It is the world’s biggest nuclear power, a formidable space power, a major exporter of energy, a member of the UN Security Council and India’s longstanding strategic partner in a relationship that has withstood the vagaries of geopolitics and the test of time.
Modi will raise Ukraine and stress on the need for peace, offer India’s efforts to secure the end of war and place India firmly on the side of peace even as he is seated beside Putin for bilateral talks, while at the same time India will engage with Russia, procure defense equipment and spare parts, increase trade and energy imports where feasible and define the partnership on its own terms, focused on mutual prosperity, dovetailing of interests and building of a multipolar world order.
As Shashi Tharoor writes in NDTV, “By engaging with Russia while deepening ties with the US and Europe, India enhances its leverage. It demonstrates that it is indispensable to both sides, a swing state in global geopolitics. It also reinforces India’s image as an autonomous actor, not a subordinate ally. In a world of shifting alliances, this autonomy is a strategic asset.”
My final point is on the shifting of power equation. There was a perceptible gap between the focus of Putin’s visit and what India hoped to gain from it. Both sides have a stated goal of accelerating bilateral trade and have set the target of $100 billion by 2030. That is impossible unless Russia buys more from India and the trade evolves into a more balanced economic partnership.
Right now, of the record high of $68.7 billion in FY 2024-25, India’s share of exports is a measly $4.88 billion. India exports more to the UAE. Right from the time that Putin’s airplane touched down on Indian shores, and even during the lead up to his arrival, India framed the visit on economic terms and a set of meetings between both sides drove home the message that even though Russia wants to build on the defence partnership and is even hard selling its crown jewel, the Su-57, New Delhi is more interested in addressing the economic imbalance for trade ties that are more sustainable and addresses India’s needs.
The push for broad basing the relationship from its twin planks of energy and defence towards a more diversified partnership came from India, that identified over 65 specific Russian non-trade barriers for agriculture and marine exports and took it up through official channels and mechanisms.
With India’s share in Russia’s total imports pegged only at a meagre 2%, New Delhi sees space for a major upside and pitched an export surge to Russia in segments such as automobiles, electronics, machinery, industrial components, textiles, marine and consumer goods, identifying these sectors as key to rebalance trade along with national currency-backed alternative payment mechanisms that are less susceptible to external sanctions.
The decisive shifting of power equation was evident in the way the joint statement reflected this overarching sentiment. Even defence, military and military technical cooperation were cast in the framework of joint production and technology transfer under Make-in-India program and setting up of joint ventures for meeting the needs of the Indian Armed Forces.
While external affairs minister S Jaishankar defined Putin’s visit as
“reimagining the ties with a focus on economic engagement”, foreign secretary Misri was more blunt. In his briefing to the media, he called economic cooperation “the driving impulse and the most important focus of this particular visit”.
India’s top diplomat said “expanding bilateral trade and strengthening economic cooperation requires swiftly addressing non-tariff barriers and regulatory impediments. Enhancing Indian exports to Russia in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, marine products, and textiles is important to correct the trade imbalance. Each one of these sectors, in considerable detail, was discussed between the two leaders today, with both of them pointing to the opportunities that existed in these areas and what were the steps, that were needed, that could be taken by both sides.”
It leaves little to imagination. An intended side-effect of framing the Russian leader’s visit in terms of “economic cooperation” also reduces the geopolitical heat. It may not be a coincidence that neither did Zelenskyy had anything to say about Putin’s schmoozing with Modi, nor did Trump fire off another grumpy Truth Social post. Another triumph of Indian diplomacy.
(The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)
End of Article
