Monday, US stock futures soared after President Donald Trump said he was halting plans to strike Iranian power plants, citing productive talks between the two nations. Below are 3 reasons the market rally is likely to stick:
Nasdaq Down 9 of 10 Weeks: Bullish?
One of the most important reasons to check market stats is that they cut through the market noise, manipulation, and misconceptions. For instance, most investors would presume that when the Nasdaq Composite is down 9 out of 10 weeks (as it is now), stocks are often in a bear marke, and lower prices are on the horizon. However, the market stats show just the opposite, illustrating how Wall Street is the master manipulator. In fact, since 1978, when the Nasdaq Composite is down 9 out of 10 weeks, similar episodes of selling have seen the NASDAQ higher 3 months and 1 year later every time, with an average gain of 32.5% after 1 year. (Source: The Market Stats, @TheMarketStats)
Earnings are Still Robust
Despite geopolitical tensions and market volatility, earnings from leading companies remain very robust, especially in AI and AI-adjacent stocks. For instance, last week Micron (MU) reported record revenue that jumped 196% year-over-year. The company cited booming AI demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) product and issued very strong Q3 revenue guidance.
Meanwhile, other AI-related companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA),Broadcom (AVGO), and Dell (DELL) also handily beat Wall Street expectations and raised forward guidance. In other words, the fundamentals beneath the ugly geopolitical headlines remain robust.
Volume Explodes: Capitulation?
Friday, volume turnover in the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) spiked to its highest levels since November’s market bottom. Similar volume spikes have proven to be a sign of capitulation and have marked several market bottoms.
Image Source: SubuTrade
Bottom Line
Ultimately, the stock market thrives on the resolution of uncertainty. With the immediate threat of conflict cooling and technical indicators pointing toward a washout of sellers, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.
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Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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