RDJ held its Geopolitical event, 
Global Currents: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts and
their Impact on Ireland, at its Cork office
at 85 South Mall with keynote speaker, Larry Donnelly, Law Lecturer
at University of Galway, renowned political commentator, media
contributor and columnist.

The keynote was followed by a dynamic panel discussion moderated
by RDJ Partner Ashling Walsh, featuring Noelle OConnell, CEO of
European Movement Ireland; Alan Werlau, Head of Investments at
Barclays Private Bank; and Professor Eleanor Doyle, Economist at
Cork University Business School. Together, they examined the risks
and opportunities facing Irish businesses in today’s rapidly
evolving global environment.

Larry Donnelly’s Keynote Address – Highlights

  1. Tariffs Remain a Major Threat:

    The risk of tariffs continues to pose an existential threat to
    exporters with tight margins. The issue is currently before the US
    Supreme Court, but even an unfavorable ruling for the Trump
    administration may not end the threat—alternative avenues for
    imposing tariffs remain open. A Section 232 investigation is also
    ongoing. While many businesses, including those in pharmaceuticals,
    are preparing for a 15% tariff, the final outcome is still
    uncertain.
  2. Digital Services Act (“DSA”) and
    Transatlantic Tensions:

    The DSA, designed to combat hate speech and illegal content, has
    highlighted a deep divide between US and EU perspectives on freedom
    of expression. Many in the US view the EU’s regulatory
    approach as censorship and an unnecessary burden, leading some US
    tech leaders to align themselves with Trump for self-interest. The
    DSA could also trigger visa restrictions or regulatory
    tariffs.
  3. Occupied Territories Bill – Virtue vs.
    Realpolitik:

    While the Bill is seen as morally commendable, it risks exposing
    Ireland to greater economic vulnerability, potentially more so than
    other European countries. However, similar legislation across
    Europe may help mitigate some risks. If passed, the Bill could
    prompt the introduction of robust State and Federal anti-BDS laws
    in the US.
  4. It was suggested that anti-European
    sentiment     exists within the Trump administration,
    with a perception that Europe is “freeloading,” overly
    reliant on social policies, and perhaps less dynamic than in the
    past.
  5. 2026 US midterms. It remains unclear
    whether the midterms will bring significant change, with Democrats
    currently at their lowest polling point in 40 years. 

  6. In terms of what Ireland should be doing now, the following key
    actions were stressed:
    a. Politician to Politician
    engagement     will be crucial and there is no substitute
    for that.
    b. Irish Presidential race will be hugely
    relevant – a president with capacity to engage and maximise soft
    power on behalf of Ireland and Europe will be extremely
    important. 
    c. “More Berlin, less
    Boston”     – diversification into new markets and
    finding new partners must happen and creativity will be key to
    working through the hurdles being put up by the “America
    first” policies in this regard. 
    d. Home grown enterprise will be important
    but “what’s within our control needs to be done
    well    ” and without paying too much heed to critics who
    claim that the economy and GDP are being prioritised over society;
    we can’t have a decent society in 2025 unless we have a high
    functioning economy. 

Panel Discussion

RDJ Partner, Ashling Walsh was joined by Noelle
O’Connell, CEO of European Movement Ireland; Alan Werlau,
Head of Investments at Barclays Private Bank; and Professor Eleanor
Doyle, Economist at Cork University Business School to risks and
opportunities facing Irish businesses in today’s rapidly
evolving global environment.

1. Global Economic and Market Outlook

Alan Werlau noted that while political
uncertainty and tariffs have led some investors to pause, the
overall impact on investment has been limited. Inflation has risen
due to tariffs, but markets have largely absorbed this, and
interest rates are now trending downward. Despite ongoing
uncertainty, 80% of global portfolio growth at Barclays is driven
by corporate earnings, indicating underlying market resilience.
However, Alan cautioned that persistent uncertainty is far from
ideal.

He also highlighted deeper, long-term challenges:

  • The US faces an aging population and significant fiscal issues,
    as does the EU.
  • Instead of addressing these core problems, political focus
    often shifts to marginal issues.

2. Ireland’s Trade Strategy and Global
Position

Overdependence on the US:

The panel agreed that Ireland must reduce its reliance on the US
market, especially given tariff threats and ongoing uncertainty.
Maintaining and expanding trade with European and other global
partners is now more important than ever.

Noelle O’Connell (CEO of the
European Movement Ireland) emphasized:

  • The EU is “in senior hurling
    territory”—political engagement at the highest level is
    essential.
  • Ireland is the sixth-largest source of FDI into the US, but
    diversification is crucial.
  • The EU is actively pursuing new trade agreements (recent deals
    with Canada, Japan, Singapore; ongoing talks with Australia, New
    Zealand, and the proposed EU Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay
    and Uruguay).

Anti-European Sentiment:

Noelle acknowledged the perception of “freeloading”
within the Trump administration, referencing President
Trump’s assertion that the EU was established to take
advantage of the US. She emphasised that EU officials are actively
working to counter this narrative and to strengthen transatlantic
relations.

Upcoming Opportunity:

Ireland’s Presidency of the Council of the EU
(June–December 2026) presents a major opportunity for Irish
businesses. With over 40 European leaders expected for the European
Political Community meeting, there will be significant demand for
services—translation, marketing, accommodation, and
hospitality. Now is the time for Irish businesses to prepare and
get involved.

3. Competitiveness and Future-Proofing
Ireland

Professor Eleanor Doyle highlighted:

  • Ireland’s population has doubled since 1990, driven by
    both natural growth and immigration.
  • To remain competitive, Ireland must invest in infrastructure,
    research and development, and housing. The tax base should be
    broadened, and investment decisions made strategically, as Ireland
    currently lags behind Europe in some areas.

Sustainability as a Strategic Advantage:

While US businesses may be less focused on sustainability, Eleanor
sees this as a major strategic opportunity for Ireland. Emphasising
sustainability can make Irish businesses more attractive to
consumers who value environmental responsibility, allowing Ireland
to capture market share left behind by less proactive
competitors.

Budget Priorities:

Eleanor expressed concern that the government may overspend in the
upcoming budget. She advocated for greater investment in higher
education, particularly in student housing and R&D, suggesting
a means-tested approach to student accommodation. She also welcomed
the Taoiseach’s leadership on the Action Plan on
Competitiveness.

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