The remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about resuming nuclear tests have surprised and concerned experts. They note that modern research typically relies on computer modeling, while physical testing can take years and cost millions of dollars. These conclusions come after analyzing materials from a well-known American publication.
The publication emphasizes that, despite Trump’s statements about directing the Pentagon, the management of the process may be overseen by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) within the Department of Energy. It is the NNSA that oversees the test site in Nevada, where the United States last conducted tests in 1992 during George H. W. Bush’s presidency.
Former site workers warn that reviving physical testing could be difficult and costly: the testing experience has been lost, because modern nuclear tests largely rely on modeling and so-called “subcritical” tests, which are halted before the moment of the actual explosion.
Personnel issues are extremely important. The people who run the tests are not bureaucrats. They were not people with PowerPoint; they “worked with their hands,” said Paul Dickman, a federal official in the nuclear sector who participated in several tests on Nevada grounds.
The site’s leadership requires substantial repairs. The publication notes that visitors described the equipment as a “rusty pit.” Some NNSA staff left their posts or were furloughed due to the shutdown, and some former officials believe that the revival could take years, while others forecast the possibility of faster steps – in six months.
If all you want is an effective gimmick to say, “okay, you detonated a nuclear device, don’t worry about the data,” you would probably take a weapon from a reserve stock, take it apart a bit, and then simply detonate it. That would take a year
Even a simple test could cost up to $100 million, said Corey Hinderstein, the former deputy administrator of the NNSA, who now coordinates the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Institution. According to him, a test would require excavating a new vertical shaft to avoid disrupting other operations in Nevada.
The article also notes that Trump’s move is rooted in a view common among his circle that testing is needed to counter the nuclear threat from Russia, China, and North Korea, which are currently modernizing their systems. Robert Peters of the Heritage Foundation expressed the view that “we are standing still. Our nuclear arsenal is the same as it was 50 years ago. We need to do something to show that we are not afraid and will not yield to pressure from the autocrats in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang.”
Trump’s post appeared on Truth Social in anticipation of a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The post did not specify which tests were meant, but stressed that the goal was to conduct tests on a “level playing field” with Russia and China.
In Russia, the last nuclear test took place in 1990, on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the publication notes. China conducted a test in 1996, North Korea in 2017. It is also noted that the post could be a reaction to Putin’s statements about developing nuclear weapons and new torpedoes with a nuclear propulsion system. Official comments from the White House and the Department of Energy have not yet been provided, and Trump himself told reporters that he would soon provide more information on this matter.
