JPMorgan stated that a supply shortage caused by production cuts from major global uranium miners and the depletion of secondary supplies, combined with a boom in nuclear power construction and significant demand for nuclear power from AI data centers, is driving up uranium prices. A deeper risk in the market lies in Western countries’ heavy reliance on Russian uranium enrichment services; if the U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on Russia are unsuccessful, it could lead to a severe shortage of enriched uranium supply after 2028. Since the beginning of this year, the spot and futures prices of uranium have risen by approximately 5%.
The global uranium market is at a critical turning point, with supply cuts, surging demand, and geopolitical tensions collectively potentially making it a bottleneck for nuclear energy development and a geopolitical pressure point.
According to Wind Information, JPMorgan’s latest report on September 23 revealed an increasingly tense market reality: explosive demand driven by the nuclear renaissance and AI revolution on one side, and production cuts by major producers and geopolitically-induced supply bottlenecks on the other.
Since the beginning of this year, spot and futures prices of uranium have risen by approximately 5%. Behind the price increase is the fact that major global producers such as Kazatomprom and Cameco have cut production, while China’s rapid nuclear power construction and the substantial electricity demand from AI data centers are driving robust growth in demand.
Deeper risks lie within the nuclear fuel supply chain and geopolitical uncertainties. The report emphasized that Western countries heavily rely on Russia for uranium enrichment services, and US legislation aimed at reducing this dependency could lead to severe supply shortages after 2028.
Widening supply gap provides strong price support
According to the report, the supply side of the uranium market is facing significant challenges, providing a solid price floor.
The core reason for tight supply stems from strategic production cuts by major producers. Kazakhstan’s state-owned atomic energy company Kazatomprom plans to reduce its 2026 output by 10% to 77 million pounds. Meanwhile, Canadian mining and energy company Cameco will also lower production at its MacArthur River mine from 18 million pounds to 13 million pounds.
More critically, secondary supplies that were previously used to fill the gap are rapidly depleting. Secondary supplies from government stockpiles and re-enrichment have fallen sharply from 50% of total supply in 2021 to about 15% in 2025 and are expected to shrink further by 2030.
The report analyzed that market equilibrium is expected to be achieved around 2028-2029, and the industry will require higher prices to incentivize new greenfield projects to come online. However, as utility companies in the US and EU currently hold inventories sufficient for about three years, there is no immediate need for panic buying in the short term.
China and AI Drive Strong Demand Growth
In stark contrast to the contraction on the supply side, global uranium demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. The report forecasts that global demand will increase from 188 million pounds in 2025 to 230 million pounds in 2030.
China is leading a global boom in nuclear power construction. According to Xinhua News Agency, as reported by the International Energy Agency earlier this year, over 70 gigawatts of new nuclear power capacity are under construction globally, marking one of the highest levels in the past 30 years. More than 40 countries and regions plan to expand the role of nuclear energy in their energy systems. China accounts for the majority of the ongoing global nuclear projects.
Additionally, a new driver of demand is emerging: artificial intelligence and data centers. These high-energy-consuming industries are pushing tech giants towards nuclear power. The report mentions that Meta has signed a 20-year virtual Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Constellation Energy, while Amazon has secured nearly 2 gigawatts of nuclear power supply from Talon Energy to power its AWS data centers.
De-Russification and Geopolitical Risks
The report emphasizes that more pressing than uranium itself may be bottlenecks in the enrichment process, particularly dependence on Russia.
Next-generation Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) require High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), with enrichment levels reaching up to 20%, far exceeding the 3-5% of traditional reactors. The report predicts that global demand for enriched uranium will grow from the current 50 million SWU annually to between 75 million and 100 million SWU by 2040.
However, data shows that in 2023, Russia supplied over 25% of foreign-source Separative Work Units (SWU). As various legislative bills begin to restrict trade flows, if Russian supplies are completely cut off after 2028, the market will face a significant shortfall of 15-20 million SWU.
In response, the U.S. Congress has allocated $2.7 billion, supplemented by $700 million from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aimed at enhancing domestic enrichment capabilities. U.S.-based Centris Energy aims to produce 3.5 million SWU at its Ohio plant in the coming years.
On the other hand, global uranium mining supply is highly concentrated. According to a JPMorgan report, Kazakhstan accounts for approximately 40%, Canada around 20%, and Africa (mainly Namibia) about 12% as of 2025. The future landscape will change: reserves of Kazakhstan’s national atomic energy company are expected to deplete post-2030, while Canada’s position will rise with the commissioning of new projects. Geopolitical instability in places like Niger adds uncertainty to African supplies.
For investors, the report outlines a series of key catalysts that warrant close attention, including: announcements regarding the procurement of uranium for the U.S. strategic uranium reserve, purchasing activities by financial institutions such as Sprott and Yellowcake, further production cuts by producers, funding decisions by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and any news related to disruptions in Russian supply. These factors will collectively determine the future direction of the uranium market.
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