India’s emergence as the world’s fourth-largest economy unfolds amid global upheaval. Supply chains are fragmenting, technology ecosystems decoupling, and protectionist measures reshaping trade patterns. These disruptions are central to Indian industry’s competitiveness and survival. Sanctions, export controls, and shifting alliances now influence where companies invest, source, and sell. India Inc. must respond with foresight, embedding geopolitical intelligence into strategy, strengthening operations, and collaborating closely with the government. Policymakers, in turn, must work hand-in-hand with business to expedite reforms, secure supply chains, and enhance India’s global standing.

The G7’s “de-risking” from China, reconfigured trade corridors, and protectionist policies are already reshaping market access, investment flows, and supply chains. For Indian businesses, these changes present both risks and openings. Those who prepare strategically will thrive; those who remain reactive may be sidelined.

Until recently, many firms assumed tariffs, sanctions, and diplomatic standoffs were government matters alone. This is outdated. Global multinationals have established geopolitical risk teams, real-time monitoring, and scenario-planning systems. Indian firms must develop similar capabilities to remain competitive.

India’s business landscape is undergoing profound structural shifts. Energy markets are transitioning from fossil fuels and politically unstable suppliers to renewable energy and energy security, prompting firms in heavy industry, transport, and infrastructure to rethink investments.

Simultaneously, governments are asserting “digital sovereignty”, tightening control over data, infrastructure, and cross-border technology flows. These developments directly affect India’s strengths in IT services, telecommunications, fintech, and advanced manufacturing.

Great power rivalries add complexity. The US-China race for technological supremacy is fragmenting markets and supply chains. While this presents strategic opportunities for India, they can only be realised if firms scale manufacturing, enhance logistics, and meet global standards. Even as India strengthens ties with Washington, recurring frictions over tariffs, digital trade, and market access expose vulnerabilities.

Post-pandemic supply-chain nationalism has prompted nations to relocate industries and secure resources. India can position itself as a trusted manufacturing hub, but credibility requires consistent policy, robust infrastructure, and flawless execution. Simultaneously, ESG norms and climate regulations highlight sustainability’s growing significance. Carbon pricing and green benchmarks are now prerequisites for accessing markets such as Europe. Companies that fail to adapt risk exclusion.

These trends underscore an undeniable reality: Business strategy and geopolitics are inseparable.

India is projected by the IMF to grow 6.4% in both 2025 and 2026. For business, this trajectory offers enormous opportunities and a compelling imperative to adapt. In his Independence Day address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised GST simplification, tax rationalisation, and a high-powered Task Force for Next-Generation Reforms. These measures aim to modernise laws, reduce compliance costs, and accelerate growth. Yet reforms alone are insufficient. Industry must align strategies with national priorities, recalibrate approaches, and invest in future-facing sectors such as semiconductors, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals. States must complement these efforts by improving regulatory regimes, expediting land acquisition, modernising infrastructure, and harmonising compliance frameworks.

Public policy and corporate affairs heads in companies, once confined to compliance, must evolve into “chief geopolitical officers”, monitoring global risks, interpreting sanctions, anticipating regulatory changes, and advising boards on diversification and market-entry strategies. Their guidance must move to the core of corporate resilience.

Equally critical is a strengthened business-government partnership. Industry must collaborate with policymakers, trade bodies, and international forums to anticipate regulatory changes, shape trade alignments, and ensure corporate strategies advance national priorities. Government reforms provide the framework, but corporate foresight converts policy into performance. India must accelerate trade agreements, deepen technology partnerships, and pursue assertive economic diplomacy to secure supply chains and markets.

CEOs and boards must stay ahead of the geopolitical and geoeconomics curve, embedding foresight into every strategic decision. For Indian businesses, the message is clear: Anticipation and agility are as vital as cost and scale. Geopolitics is no longer a passing headwind; it defines the context of global business.

Ajay Khanna is co-founder, Public Affairs Forum of India. The views expressed are personal