Africa’s top conflict hotspots to watch in 2026, according to U.S. risk assessments

The survey evaluates risks based on likelihood and severity, offering early warning signals to avoid costly conflicts that could demand military, diplomatic, or humanitarian intervention.

This year’s outlook comes at a sensitive moment.

While the second Trump administration has pushed to end several major global conflicts including in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gaza, and Ukraine, It has simultaneously reduced funding for conflict prevention, strategic foresight, and peace-building institutions, according to the CFR.

Analysts warn that these cuts could leave Washington more exposed to sudden crises in fragile regions, particularly in Africa.

Beyond the countries already flagged, the survey highlights several structural drivers that are shaping Africa’s conflict outlook.

The CFR notes that militant organisations are increasingly exploiting governance vacuums, porous borders, and under-resourced national armies to expand territorial influence, raising the risk of cross-border spillover into coastal West African states.

Election-related instability is another recurring theme. In fragile post-conflict states such as South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, delayed or contested electoral processes risk reigniting ethnic and political rivalries.

These tensions are often compounded by weak institutions, elite power struggles, and unresolved questions over resource control, particularly oil, gold, and critical minerals.

The survey also points to resource-driven conflicts as an accelerating factor. Competition over gold, oil, gas, and strategic minerals continues to fuel armed violence in Sudan, eastern Congo, and northern Mozambique.

In several cases, illicit extraction networks, smuggling routes, and foreign commercial interests have become deeply entangled with armed groups, making conflicts harder to resolve.

Below is a concise overview of African countries flagged in the CFR Preventive Priorities Survey, outlining why each is on the U.S. conflict watchlist for 2026.

Sudan is among the most urgent crises, with the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces at risk of intensifying. The CFR warns of mass civilian displacement, possible atrocities, and spillover into Chad, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic.

Somalia is tied directly to U.S. policy choices. A reduction in U.S. security support could allow Al-Shabaab and ISIS-linked groups to regroup, undermining counterterrorism gains in the Horn of Africa.

Mali reflects the wider Sahel crisis, where insurgents are expanding amid weak governance and military rule, increasing risks for neighboring states.

Eastern DRC remains volatile due to armed groups competing over territory and resources, including Rwanda-backed factions. The CFR warns of possible regional escalation.

Ethiopia faces the risk of renewed conflict involving Eritrea-linked forces, particularly amid tensions tied to Red Sea access and border disputes.

An Islamist insurgency in northern Mozambique threatens to intensify, risking civilian lives and major energy investments.

Delayed elections could reignite ethnic and political violence, undermining the country’s fragile peace agreement.

Separatist violence and governance failures in northern and western Cameroon risk widening into broader instability.

The CFR warns that while these conflicts may not pose immediate threats to the U.S. homeland, neglecting prevention now raises the risk of sudden crises that could demand far costlier intervention later.