Updated October 30, 2025
Taiwan’s disputed status is a direct result of the Chinese Civil War, in which the defeated Nationalist (Kuomintang) government fled the mainland and moved its government to the island in 1949. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has never exercised control over Taiwan, it claims that the island is an inalienable part of China that must be “reunified” with the mainland. In a 2022 white paper, the PRC said the resolution of the Taiwan question is “indispensable for the realization of China’s rejuvenation” and a “historic mission” of the Chinese Communist Party. The PRC has a stated preference for seeking reunification through peaceful means but reserves the right to use force to achieve its aims.
Taiwan’s main political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), hold differing views regarding Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China. President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT (2008–16) championed the “1992 Consensus,” in which both Taiwan and the PRC agreed that there is only one China—while differing on what “China” means. This (non-consensus) consensus allowed for cross-strait relations to expand and deepen, but led to criticism in Taiwan, as many Taiwanese feared that growing interdependence would limit Taiwan’s choices in the future. Taiwan’s previous president, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, declined to endorse the 1992 Consensus. As a result, the PRC cut off official communication in 2016 and has sought to punish Tsai through economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and heightened military activities.
While the DPP is seen as the “pro-independence” party, President Tsai stated that there was no need for Taiwan to declare independence because it is already an independent country. In the wake of the PRC’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, Taiwan’s electorate has grown more skeptical of closer ties with the mainland, leading the “pro-China” KMT to struggle at the ballot box. In addition, a 2022 poll from the National Chengchi University in Taipei suggests a growing sense of Taiwanese national identity among the population and an increase in support for Taiwan’s eventual independence.
The ongoing dispute has led to heightened military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, which geographically separates mainland China from the island of Taiwan. In the First Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1954–55, the PRC shelled the Kinmen and Matsu islands, situated close to the mainland, in an unsuccessful attempt to deter the United States from signing a mutual defense treaty with the Nationalist government. Following the First Taiwan Strait Crisis, Taipei and Beijing reached a tacit understanding of a “median line,” also called the center line, to guide rules of engagement and prevent miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait. The PRC repeated its artillery bombardment of Kinmen in 1958 during the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. In response, the United States drew up plans for a nuclear strike on mainland China, demonstrating the Dwight Eisenhower administration’s Cold War commitment to Taiwan. The PRC fired live ammunition and missiles into Taiwan’s waters during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995–96 to express disapproval of Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States.
In 1979, the United States abrogated the mutual defense treaty it had with Taiwan since 1954 and transferred its official diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. At that time, it acknowledged (but did not endorse) the PRC’s position that there is one China, and that Taiwan is a part of China. Rather, U.S. policy is to not take a position on Taiwan’s sovereignty and regard its ultimate status as undetermined. Also in 1979, President Jimmy Carter signed into law the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which commits the United States to “make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” The TRA also obligates the United States to maintain the capacity “to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.” The TRA, however, does not obligate the United States to come to Taiwan’s defense, and for decades U.S. presidents have refused to say whether they would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf—a policy known as strategic ambiguity.
Tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan amount to a classic security dilemma: both are taking actions they view as defensive that the opposing side views as escalatory. A potential conflict between China and Taiwan has significant implications for U.S. security interests, as the United States would need to balance its desire to support Taiwan against the risks of a broader war with China. The United States has objected to China’s efforts to isolate Taiwan, which include blocking its participation in international organizations, interfering in its elections, pressuring Taiwanese firms to oppose independence, and sanctioning its industries.
Military activities near Taiwan have grown significantly in recent years. China is developing the military capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2021 Military Power Report highlighted China’s prioritization of “joint long-range precision strikes across domains, increasingly sophisticated space, counterspace, and cyber capabilities, and accelerating the large-scale expansion of its nuclear forces.” Moreover, China has integrated emerging technology into its military strategy through an approach known as “intelligentized” warfare. The Department of Defense’s aforementioned report notes China seeks to dominate technologies associated with the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The PRC increasingly sends aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone as a show of force, and in 2020, Taiwan reported a Chinese cyberattack on ten government agencies to steal information. As the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has deteriorated, competition between the United States and China has intensified, and the prospect of China using force against Taiwan has risen. In an attempt to ensure Taiwan has the ability to defend itself and in response to a growing military gap, the Donald Trump administration sold more than $18 billion in arms to Taiwan, and in 2020 the State Department eliminated long-standing restrictions on U.S. diplomatic engagement with Taiwanese officials. Moreover, officials now acknowledge that a small but expanding contingent of Marines has been secretly training Taiwan’s forces since at least 2021.
Taiwan is the leading global producer of advanced semiconductors. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces 65 percent of the world’s semiconductors and 90 percent of the most advanced chips. If conflict between China and Taiwan were to break out, global supply chains would be severely disrupted to the detriment of U.S. interests. Speaking in 2022 alongside MI5 General Director Ken McCallum in London, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that an invasion of Taiwan would “represent one of the most horrific business disruptions the world has ever seen,” as a potential sanctions regime against China would harm the global economy “at a much larger scale” than the current sanctions response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. National Security Council anticipates that a Chinese attack and the corresponding loss of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company would cause a $1 trillion disruption to the global economy.
A potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait also has implications for the territorial dispute between China and Japan in the East China Sea. The PRC views the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands as a part of “Taiwan province” and may seek to take the islands during a conflict. If the PLA Navy were to occupy Taiwan, the Council on Foreign Relations’ David Sacks argues that Japan would struggle to defend its westernmost islands, as well as the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and even Okinawa. During its August 2022 military exercise aimed at Taiwan, China launched ballistic missiles over Taiwan that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, in an attempt to warn Japan not to get involved during a Taiwan conflict. The late Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo stated that Japan and the United States could not stand by if China invaded Taiwan. Current Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has pledged to double Japan’s defense spending in response to the tense security climate. Taiwan’s and Japan’s islands form a crucial link in the so-called first island chain; if China were to take these islands, it would constrain U.S. naval movements and its ability to contain China in potential future conflicts.
In response to China’s growing assertiveness toward Taiwan, the Joe Biden administration has maintained many aspects of the Trump administration’s approach. In a seeming departure from strategic ambiguity, President Biden remarked in May 2022 that the United States had a commitment to come to Taiwan’s defense, if necessary, and that his administration would uphold that commitment. While the White House denied any formal change in U.S. policy, the president’s remarks reflected a move toward “strategic clarity,” a policy of explicit commitment to defending Taiwan against the use of force by the PRC, rather than strategic ambiguity. President Biden has made at least three similar statements since 2021. Beijing, on the other hand, has accused Washington of breaching its sovereignty and abandoning its One China policy [PDF].
In a further demonstration of support for Taiwan, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visited Taipei in early August 2022 and met with President Tsai Ing-wen and democracy and human rights activists. Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan provoked severe condemnation from PRC officials. The PLA launched a four-day military drill and surrounded Taiwan, simulating a blockade. The live-fire exercises were more extensive than those performed during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line over three hundred times during the demonstration and continue to cross it on a near-daily basis, effectively erasing the status quo. The PRC applied additional pressure through sanctions, halted exports, and, allegedly, cyberattacks.
After Pelosi’s visit, several other U.S. delegations visited Taiwan, and President Tsai met with Pelosi’s successor as U.S. Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, on a stopover in the United States. Meanwhile, China has intensified threatening air maneuvers, flying more frequently and closer to Taiwan, and Chinese warships have increasingly joined in the movements.
More on Confrontation Over Taiwan
Taiwan Rejects “One Country, Two Systems” Model
October 31, 2025
President Lai Ching-te stated Taiwanese opposition to the proposed Chinese model in a military ceremony in Taipei; in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart at a Malaysia summit, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated U.S. support for Taiwan and concerns over Beijing’s increased assertiveness towards the island (Reuters).
Taiwan Reiterates Confidence in U.S. Ties
October 30, 2025
Taiwan’s foreign minister said Taipei is confident in its security cooperation with Washington amid concerns that a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could compromise the island’s interests; following the meeting, Trump suggested that the conflict over Taiwan was not discussed (Reuters).
China Reasserts Refusal To Rule Out Force Against Taiwan
October 29, 2025
A Chinese official reiterated the warning despite suggesting that Beijing would prefer peaceful unification methods; meanwhile, in a speech to military officers, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te vowed to resist annexation and other attempts at pressure by Beijing (Reuters).
China Pushes Claims Over Taiwan
October 24, 2025
Beijing announced a new national holiday, the Commemoration Day of Taiwan’s Restoration, to mark the 1945 handover of Taiwan from Japan to China and underscore its claim that the island is an “inalienable part” of the country, state media said; the announcement comes as China continues increasing its military and political pressure on Taiwan (AP).
Concerns Over New Chinese Economic Plan
October 23, 2025
Taiwan officials said they are monitoring China’s new five-year development plan, which the Communist Party discussed in a meeting on Thursday; Taiwan is concerned the plan could aim to economically integrate the Taiwan-held Kinmen islands, thereby expanding Beijing’s jurisdictional claims (Taipei Times).
Taiwan-U.S. Security Ties
October 22, 2025
Taiwan announced it will strengthen security cooperation with the United States through policy dialogues and joint training to strengthen deterrence and preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, as Taiwan accuses Beijing of accelerating military pressure through war games and political harassment (Reuters).
Trump Comments on Taiwan
October 20, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the risk of a Chinese invasion, saying he believes Chinese President Xi Jinping has no intention to seize Taiwan and that U.S.-China relations will remain stable amid plans to negotiate a trade deal with Xi in South Korea (Politico).
Accusations of Chinese Meddling in Taiwan Party Elections
October 18, 2025
Former lawmaker Cheng Li-wun won the Nationalist leadership race by a wide margin, becoming the party’s second female chair and vowing to pursue “peace and balance” in cross-strait relations; officials investigated alleged Chinese influence operations on social media, with the Nationalists, or KMT, having historically maintained warm ties with Beijing (AP).
Taiwan Introduces New Air Defense System
October 10, 2025
In his National Day address, President Lai Ching-te announced plans to develop a new multi-layered air defense network called “T-Dome,” modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, as part of a broader effort to boost defense spending and modernize Taiwan’s military; Lai also urged Beijing to renounce force amid escalating Chinese military pressure and frequent incursions (Reuters).
Taiwan Monitors Chinese Military Moves Ahead of National Day
October 3, 2025
Taiwan’s defense minister said the armed forces are observing Chinese activity to determine whether Beijing may hold war games after Taiwan’s October 10 National Day, as it did last year; he inspected defenses on the Penghu Islands, calling them critical to Taiwan’s security, while Chinese jets and warships continue near-daily operations around the island (Reuters).
Taiwan Rejects U.S. Proposal to Produce Half of Its Chips in United States
October 1, 2025
Washington had discussed the proposal with Taipei as part of efforts to reshore U.S. manufacturing, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a NewsNation interview that aired over the weekend (WSJ). Trump has pledged to implement tariffs on chip imports, with exemptions for companies that manufacture in the United States (Bloomberg).
Taiwan Accuses China of Exploiting UN Resolution
October 1, 2025
Taiwan’s government warned that Beijing is misleading the international community by claiming UN Resolution 2758 provides legal backing for its sovereignty over the island, stating that the move seeks to create a pretext for military action; China, however, insisted that the resolution affirms “one China” (Reuters).
China Simulates Missile Attacks on British Warship
September 30, 2025
Fighter jets from the People’s Liberation Army conducted “constructive kills,” or simulated missile strikes lacking live fire, against the UK Royal Navy’s HMS Richmond as it passed through the Taiwan Strait with the U.S. destroyer USS Higgins, prompting accusations of provocation from Beijing (Times of London).
Xi Pushes Trump Administration to Formally Oppose Taiwan Independence
September 27, 2025
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s request to formally “oppose” independence represents a stronger stance than the current U.S. position that it does not “support” independence; the request, raised ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, would mark a major diplomatic victory for Beijing and test Washington’s long-standing strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, as the island’s authorities affirm they remain in close contact with U.S. partners (WSJ).
Russia Assisting China With Military Capabilities
September 26, 2025
Leaked Russian documents analyzed by the Royal United Services Institute show that Moscow is supplying China with high-altitude parachute systems, amphibious assault vehicles, and airborne training that could expedite Beijing’s ability to invade Taiwan by a decade; analysts say Russia seeks to pull the United States into a Taiwan conflict and use revenue from weapons sales to fund its war in Ukraine, while China looks to fill gaps in its airborne capabilities (AP).
Taiwan Lifts Chip Export Controls on South Africa
September 25, 2025
Taiwan imposed chip controls on South Africa after it sought to downgrade Taiwan’s de facto embassy; the measures were Taipei’s first unilateral chip export controls for any country (Bloomberg). Taipei lifted the chip ban after Pretoria requested consultations on the status of Taiwan’s office; China had criticized that move, saying Taiwan was destabilizing global supply chains (FT).
Taiwan Foreign Minister Makes Rare Appearance at UN General Assembly
September 25, 2025
The visit took place during UN General Assembly week and marked the first such trip by a Taiwanese foreign minister, featuring a private reception hosted by former U.S. national security officials, as Taipei pushes for greater UN recognition despite Beijing’s objections (Reuters). China condemned the trip, lambasting the United States for promoting a “public stage for Taiwan independence” (Anadolu Agency).
Taiwan Jails Ex-Ruling Party Aides for Spying for China
September 25, 2025
A Taiwanese court sentenced the staffers to up to ten years in prison for passing political intelligence to PRC agents; the group included an ex-aide to President Lai Ching-te and a former adviser to then-Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (Guardian).
U.S., Japan, South Korea Voice Concern Over Taiwan Strait
September 22, 2025
Top diplomats Cho Hyun, Iwaya Takeshi, and Marco Rubio met in New York and issued a joint statement opposing destabilizing activity around Taiwan and “unlawful maritime claims” in the South China Sea; Taiwan welcomed the support (Reuters).
Taiwan’s President Vows to Defend Against Invasion
September 20, 2025
Capping a week of defense events that included Taiwan’s largest-ever arms show, President Lai Ching-te stated that Taiwan is determined to defend itself and rejected any claims it would surrender if invaded (Reuters).
Trump Intelligence Advisers Meet With Taiwan Envoy
September 19, 2025
Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States, Alexander Yui, met privately with members of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board in Washington earlier this month, Reuters reported, marking one of the highest-level U.S.-Taiwan contacts of Trump’s second term (Reuters). Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that President Trump vetoed over $400 million in military aid to Taiwan this summer while pursuing a trade deal and summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping; still, the administration agreed to future U.S. arms sales at an Alaska summit last month, and it has since notified Congress of a potential $500 million package (WaPo).
U.S., UK Warships Transit Taiwan Strait as China Protests
September 13, 2025
The USS Higgins and HMS Richmond sailed through the Taiwan Strait in what Washington and London described as a routine passage under international law; Beijing condemned the move as destabilizing, while its new carrier, Fujian, also crossed the strait (Reuters).
U.S.-China Calls
September 10, 2025
In his first call with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington does not seek conflict with Beijing but rather seeks to protect its vital interests (NBC). Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the need for open and constructive communication (State). On Tuesday, U.S. lawmakers announced plans for their first bipartisan trip to China since 2019 (The Hill).
U.S., Taiwan Defense Officials Met Secretly Last Week in Alaska
September 4, 2025
Washington had previously canceled a higher-level meeting planned for June; the White House informed Taipei at the time that the cancellation was related to its strikes on Iran, but it also coincided with Washington and Beijing’s ongoing trade talks (FT).
Xi Jinping Appears With Putin, Kim Jong Un in First Joint Public Appearance
September 2, 2025
The leaders of all three countries have not stepped out together since the Cold War (Bloomberg). Officially, the military parade marked the anniversary of the victory over Japan in World War II, but it also demonstrated Xi’s international partnerships and ongoing military buildup; in a speech, Xi cast China’s rise as “unstoppable” and said it was on its way to having a “world-class military” (FT). The parade showcased different types of supersonic and hypersonic missiles as well as underwater drones, some of which had never been seen in public before (Reuters).
Taiwan: Island’s Security Must be a Result of “Own Efforts”
August 19, 2025
The statement came after Trump said that Chinese President Xi Jinping told him China would not invade Taiwan during Trump’s term; Taipei closely monitors the interactions between Beijing and Washington, a foreign ministry spokesperson said (Reuters).
Taiwan Developing Next-Generation Anti-Ship Missile
August 11, 2025
Citing a Defense Ministry procurement list, Taiwan is developing a long-range subsonic anti-ship cruise missile, known as a “carrier killer,” to counter China’s aircraft carriers; the stealth missile is estimated to have a range of six hundred to one thousand kilometers and is equipped with technology to evade modern ship defenses (SCMP; Asia Times).
Taiwan Purchasing More HIMARS, NASAMS, ATACMS
August 10, 2025
Military sources disclosed that Taiwan is purchasing twenty-eight more sets of M-142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), nine more National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), and twenty more MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS); in total, Taiwan will possess fifty-seven HIMARS, twelve NASAMS, and eighty-four ATACMS (Taipei Times).
Taiwan Detains TSMC Employees Accused of Stealing Trade Secrets
August 6, 2025
Law enforcement authorities detained three current and former employees of chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as part of an investigation into allegedly stealing trade secrets; it is the first such probe since Taiwan’s 2022 enhancement of a national security law to guard its strategic technologies (CNN).
Boris Johnson Visits Taiwan
August 5, 2025
As former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Taipei and met with President Lai Ching-te, he condemned China’s “bullying of Taiwan” and emphasized that Western countries should deepen economic and political relations with Taiwan, regardless of “pressure from any other country” (Reuters).
Chinese, Taiwanese Coastguards Stand Off Near Dongsha Islands
August 3, 2025
Near the disputed Dongsha Islands in the north South China Sea, a Chinese vessel entered the area and ignored radio warnings to turn back, prompting a twenty-two-hour stand-off; the ships came as close as one nautical mile to each other, in what Taipei says was a test of its maritime response (SCMP).
