In response, Qatar may pivot towards strengthening regional alliances, especially with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to create a “greater sense of solidarity”, Bohl says.
The Israeli attack on Qatar has already galvanised Gulf unity. The UAE president visited Doha shortly after the attack, a gesture that Cengiz describes as “more than just solidarity”.
She argues that the attack, coupled with Israel’s broader destabilising policies in the Middle East, is further strengthening unity among the Gulf states.
This can herald a new era of Arab unity against Israeli aggression, with Gulf states likely to “deepen their cooperation with one another”, while diversifying their security partnerships, particularly with actors like Türkiye.
Cengiz calls the Israeli attack a watershed moment for the Gulf region, one that is expected to result in “critical revisions to existing security arrangements”.
US President Trump has assured Qatar that such strikes “won’t happen again” even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to issue veiled threats.
The UN Security Council also condemned the strikes on Doha, albeit without naming Israel in the statement agreed to by all 15 members, including the US.
But Bohl remains sceptical about American resolve, saying that Trump has yet to demonstrate a willingness to use his economic and military leverage over Israel to force a policy change.
Cengiz echoes this view. The US inaction has challenged its longstanding commitment to protecting its Gulf allies through its military presence in the region, she says.
“The sovereignty of US allies now appears to be compromised in favour of ensuring Israel’s war strategy,” she says.
Israel is now emerging for many Gulf states as “the primary regional threat”, supplanting Iran, she adds.
“This underscores a reality: US security guarantees, military bases, and even strong diplomatic ties offer no real protection when Israeli interests override alliances,” she says.
“This attack has dealt a serious blow to Qatari confidence in the US.”
According to Bohl, Doha might emulate Kuwait’s low-profile approach in world affairs going forward. Doha’s relationship with the US still has significant security upsides, which means it can’t entirely abandon the partnership, he says.
“But it can downgrade it, or alter it, so that Doha is no longer seen as the primary target for retaliation by anti-American forces like Iran,” he says.
