The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released its Armed Conflict Survey 2025, highlighting the escalating human and financial costs of conflict worldwide, as well as shifting global power dynamics between July 2024 and June 2025.
The report paints a stark picture of intensifying violence, widespread casualties, and mass displacement, compounded by shrinking humanitarian aid from major donors including the US and European nations.
Key Findings:
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Rising Death Toll: Nearly 240,000 people were killed in violent events during the reporting period, a 23% increase from the previous year. Ukraine and Palestine were the deadliest conflict zones, with 82,298 and 20,990 fatalities, respectively. Civilian deaths surged by 40%, reaching almost 50,000, with Gaza alone accounting for 80% of child casualties and 70% of female casualties globally.
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Historic Displacement: Forced displacement hit a record 122 million people, including 73.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Sudan emerged as the world’s largest displacement crisis, with 14.3 million people displaced.
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Humanitarian Aid Gap: Despite rising needs, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) cut its target for urgent assistance from nearly 300 million to 114.4 million people by March 2025. By June, only 18.5% of the required $29 billion had been secured, as major donors prioritized other development agendas.
Geopolitics and International Relations:
The survey underscores the growing influence of geopolitics in modern conflicts. Heightened great-power competition, increasing geopolitical fragmentation, and more independent foreign policies by emerging powers have intensified conflicts, including inter-state wars. The Russia–Ukraine war, ongoing since 2022, remains a pivotal flashpoint.
Declining multilateralism and weakening global governance have compounded crises. The UN Security Council is frequently bypassed due to major-power rivalries, UN peacekeeping operations have shrunk, and regional security arrangements have often replaced more robust international mechanisms. Western disengagement and perceived double standards, especially regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza, have further eroded legitimacy.
Rise of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs):
Non-state armed groups now play a major role in conflicts, acting as quasi-state actors and controlling large territories. By June 2025, over 380 active armed groups affected approximately 204 million people. Their growing transnational operations, alliances, and economic networks have strengthened their political influence, complicating traditional state-centric conflict models.
The survey highlights the economic strategies of NSAGs, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, illicit mining, arms trading, and cybercrime. Case studies cover groups in Syria, the DRC, Ukraine, and Southeast Asia, illustrating the diverse regional approaches these groups adopt to sustain their operations.
Regional Highlights:
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Americas: Criminal syndicates dominate, expanding globally through drugs, extortion, illegal mining, human trafficking, and money laundering.
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Europe and Eurasia: The Russia–Ukraine conflict drives instability, while some positive developments include peace agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
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Middle East and North Africa: The Israel–Iran war of June 2025 marked the region’s most consequential conflict. The ongoing Israel–Hamas war has led to over 55,000 Palestinian deaths and 1,700 Israeli deaths, with 50 hostages still in Gaza. Other escalations, including clashes with Hizbullah and the collapse of Assad’s government in Syria, have further destabilized the region.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Armed violence continues to rise, particularly in Sudan, the DRC, and Sahelian countries, causing immense human suffering despite no new armed conflicts.
The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2025 underscores a sobering reality: global conflicts are intensifying in scope and complexity, humanitarian needs are surging, and the international system is struggling to respond effectively.
