Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, and human factor in global conflicts – Reflection by Teymur Atayev

Surprising… or maybe not. Perhaps it’s entirely natural — no matter how much someone might disagree. What am I talking about? Essentially, it’s the same as always. Even though it seems the world is ruled by all-powerful social networks, search engines, massive data centres, and countless “cloud” applications — all enhanced, of course, with artificial intelligence and other technological marvels — at the top of it all, visible and invisible, still sits Man. Yes, with a capital M. God’s creation.

And while people often talk about the uniqueness of robots that control entire production lines or even drive buses full of passengers, the human factor has always been at the core of everything — and it still is. It’s not just about a human pressing a trigger, or, if you prefer, hitting the launch button of a missile system.

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Certain nuances, clearly visible in the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran, only confirm this.

Just as a person’s life — regardless of geography, nationality, or religion — depends on routes, transport, and logistics, so too does the individual, through their actions, shape events in specific arenas and sometimes even influence the course of world history. To illustrate this more vividly, consider an episode from Alexandre Dumas’ mid-19th-century classic, The Count of Monte Cristo. In it, the protagonist meets a telegraph operator and offers him a substantial reward to transmit false information. The operator, without much hesitation, complies — and soon one of the hero’s enemies, a banker who was the target of the false message, is ruined.

Here, the human factor is clear in at least three roles: the originator of the idea, the executor, and the target. One could even add a fourth — the person who delivers the information — but that is a minor detail.

“Okay,” the reader might ask, “what does this have to do with the war against Iran?”

Let us recall the type of information that, alongside reports on casualties and destruction, all reputable news agencies have been circulating since the start of hostilities. Correct — data on energy prices. And how is this information presented? Again, correct — through the statements of the highest-ranking officials of the states involved.

For example: “Yesterday’s sharp drop in prices was caused by the decision to postpone potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.” At the same time, reports emerge of “productive negotiations” between Washington and Tehran. Prices fall — but soon a factual contradiction appears: Iran allegedly rules out the negotiations. Immediately, a new wave of price increases begins. And so it continues — a continuous loop, literally from the first days of the attack on Iran.

Here too, the human factor is clearly at play: the originator of the idea, the disseminator of information, and the recipient interpreting it — the same three key links, if we are to speak bluntly.

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Thus, behind the façade of lost lives, hundreds of thousands of refugees, countless disabled people, and destroyed infrastructure, certain forces — organisations, structures, and interest groups — continue to line their pockets, grow their bank accounts, and expand their financial portfolios in a surprisingly “clean” way. It fits perfectly with the old saying: “What is war for one, is a mother for another.”

Yes, weapons remain weapons. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital transport and logistics artery. Humanitarian facilities continue to be targeted, and families lose their breadwinners. And nearby — there are quotes, futures, and traders. Against this backdrop, billions are effectively earned “out of thin air.”

This is why some experts ask: do certain politicians really prioritise holding onto power? Or is it no longer about political futures and reputational legacy, but simply one principle — to grab what’s available here and now? To increase capital — and let the flood come later.

“Fantasy? Fairy tale? Anecdote? Or, perhaps, it’s all too real.”

But what’s so supernatural about this? Don’t scandals over betting on major sports events surface all the time — when an underdog unexpectedly defeats the favourite, and on the favourite’s own field no less? Or when a natural-born striker suddenly stops scoring?

Somewhere near the authors of such “scenarios” — even if not always directly — lies reality: death, fear, stress, shattered families, and ruined health.

But does any of this concern those who control the flow of money? Does it matter to them whether there is war or peace? The sound of metal — both literal and figurative — continues to shake the world.

Once again, this shows that, in essence, nothing has changed. As early as the 1st century, the Roman emperor Vespasian introduced a tax on public toilets. When his son Titus reproached him, Vespasian held a coin to Titus’s nose and asked, “Does it smell?” “No,” replied Titus. “And yet it comes from urine,” Vespasian noted.

The views expressed by guest columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board.

 

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