Donald Trump’s paused war in Iran could spark secondary conflicts in already volatile regions of the world as the effects on global food supplies begin to be felt.
Trump and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal, one condition of which is that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran appears to have closed the vital waterway, saying it will charge tolls to let ships through.
With around 30 per cent of oil, 25 per cent of natural gas and 35 per cent of fertilisers going through the strait, there are fears that Iranian control into the short or long-term will mean increasing disruption to global energy and fertiliser supplies, with devastating consequences for food production.
A third of seaborne fertiliser exports come from the Middle East. Prices for urea are up by around 70 per cent and ammonia is up 39 per cent since the start of the conflict.
Even if the fragile ceasefire becomes permanent, it is unclear whether shipping will be able to continue unhindered, meaning challenges to food production could remain for the foreseeable future.
Nigel Poole, professor emeritus of international development policy at Soas University of London, described the prospect of further conflict for global food supplies as “awful”.
Disruption to food supply chains could prompt increased instability at a time when more than 8 per cent of the global population – 670 million people – is already suffering from hunger.
Crisis hotspots are pushing large groups into starvation, with many in Mali and Gaza as well as Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen now classified as living in phase five of the integrated food security phase classification, meaning “famine with solid evidence”.
Experts fear more disruption could prompt new wars in the Sahel region of northern Africa, as well as central parts of the continent.
“Sudan, South Sudan, northeastern Nigeria and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo all have very long supply chains, so the weight of added transport margins and higher global maize prices on top of what’s already a crisis situation is unfortunately going to drive an awful lot of people into severe malnutrition,” said Chris Barrett, professor of applied economics and management and an international professor of agriculture at Cornell University.
“Hungry people are commonly angry people, and easily persuaded by those who have a political agenda. Food insecurity begets sociopolitical instability,” said Barrett.
“We saw this in 2011 with the Arab Spring. We saw this in 2008 as we had similar circumstances where global fuel and food prices rose rapidly and caused serious shortfalls, especially in food importing countries with complicated, expensive supply chains,” he said.
“Governments that weren’t providing an effective safety net for their populations, suddenly faced local unrest. People took to the streets in food price riots and opposition groups that were already prone to violence started fighting with governments, and overthrew them. There’s a very strong correlation between civil unrest and food prices.”
The ceasefire will do little to change any of the underlying conditions, even if it develops into a permanent cessation of hostilities, he said.
“It remains unclear how long it will take before there is near-complete recovery in the flow of oil, fertiliser, and other key products. Until trade resumes at something close to mid-February levels, all of the challenges with food supplies will remain.”
As a result, the food emergency is likely to grow as prices continue to rise. “This will lead to more people being displaced internally or crossing borders and becoming refugees. They then compete with locals for the same food supply, exacerbating the situation,” Barrett said. “This desperate situation creates an environment in which conflict becomes a looming threat, if it is not already present.”
Anthony Kitchen, senior director of field and knowledge services at the Global FoodBanking Network, said it would be “the most vulnerable countries in the world that are disproportionately impacted”, and that it was “pretty likely” that food insecurity would spread into the surrounding regions.
Kitchen added: “Those trickle-down effects will spread even further around the globe, thousands and thousands of miles away from the actual conflict.”
The World Food Programme warned on Sunday that “an additional 45 million people could be pushed into food insecurity this year” if the Iran war continued and the price of oil stayed above $100 (£75).
If the ceasefire holds, it is likely to alleviate the worst effects that the programme predicted. But with signs the deal is already fracturing, there is every possibility the turmoil will escalate.
War-torn Sudan is likely to be one of the countries worst affected by conflict in Iran. The country has been involved in a brutal civil war since April 2023 and is the site of one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The former US envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, said estimates of those killed in the conflict, mostly civilians, could surpass 400,000, while around 20 million Sudanese faced acute hunger.
Some 54 per cent of Sudan’s fertiliser imports came from the Persian Gulf region last year according to the UN, meaning that it is one of the countries hardest hit by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Caitlin Welsh, director of the global food and water security programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “When farmers are faced with high fertiliser prices, they have to make a choice. Either they have to plant less crops using the same amount of fertiliser, or go with the same acreage but use less fertiliser per acre, or they switch to crops that are less fertiliser-intensive such as soy.”
Barrett said: “Sudan has a deep-water port on the Red Sea, but that too is getting choked off since the Houthis have engaged in the fight. Most shippers are trying to avoid going through the Red Sea as well as the Strait of Hormuz, so you’re finding major disruption of shipments into the ports along the Red Sea. A place like Sudan that’s already in crisis just has no margin to absorb the shock.”
Already, famine-like conditions in multiple regions mean 4.2 million children are suffering from malnutrition, including more than 800,000 who, according to the charity World Vision, are at risk of dying from severe acute malnutrition.
