The year may be ending, but several conflicts show no signs of cooling. Global security experts warn that 2026 could see heightened violence across multiple regions.

In a sobering year-end assessment, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has released its annual Preventive Priorities Survey, warning that the world is becoming increasingly “violent and disorderly”. According to the report from the Center for Preventive Action (CPA), the number of armed conflicts globally has reached its highest level since the end of World War II, with a notable rise in interstate conflicts.

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As the second Trump administration navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, foreign policy experts have identified thirty discrete political and military contingencies that could significantly impact US national interests in 2026.

The survey categorizes risks into three tiers based on their likelihood and potential impact on U.S. security. Five contingencies were flagged as having both a high likelihood and high impact:

* Renewed Fighting in Gaza and the West Bank: Experts fear intensified clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians, driven by settlement construction, political rights disputes, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

* Intensification of the Russia-Ukraine War: Concerns are mounting over expanded attacks on critical infrastructure and civilian population centres on both sides.

* Domestic Unrest in the United States: After being rated as only moderately likely in 2025, the risk of growing political violence and popular unrest within the U.S. has returned to the high-likelihood, high-impact category.

* US Military Action in Venezuela: A prominent new addition to the 2026 survey involves potential U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups, which could escalate to direct strikes and destabilize the Maduro government.

Additionally, several “High Impact” events were rated as having a moderate likelihood, including a resumption of North Korean nuclear tests, a major AI-enabled cyberattack on US infrastructure, and potential armed clashes between Russia and NATO member countries following Russian provocations in Europe.

Regional Hotspots: The Middle East and Africa

The Middle East remains a primary concern for US policymakers, with six conflicts involving Israel rated as Tier I or Tier II priorities. This includes the risk of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel following the “twelve-day war” in June 2025, as Iran seeks to rebuild its nuclear program and proxy networks.

However, the largest volume of contingencies — nine in total — is concentrated in Africa. Most notably, the civil war in Sudan was judged as the most likely conflict to occur in 2026 among all thirty contingencies surveyed, threatening mass atrocities and regional spillover.

Great Power Competition and New Risks

The risk of direct military confrontation with major powers persists. Experts give a crisis in the Taiwan Strait an “even chance” of occurring in 2026, while tensions in the South China Sea — specifically involving Chinese aggression toward the Philippines — remain a high-impact concern despite a lower assessed likelihood.

The 2026 survey also introduced six new contingencies, reflecting a shifting global reality. These include resurgent civil war in Syria following a year of sectarian violence, rising criminal violence in Ecuador, and growing insurgencies in Cameroon.

A Call for Preventive Action

While the report notes that the Trump administration has attempted to end conflicts in regions like the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, it also criticizes the administration for “destabilizing behavior,” such as threatening force against allies and dismantling US government elements dedicated to strategic foresight and peace-building. Despite the grim outlook, the CFR identified “promising opportunities” for the US to mitigate violence.

Experts overwhelmingly pointed to the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza Strip, and China-Taiwan tensions as the areas where US influence or international partnerships could most effectively bolster peace efforts.