①The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision meeting & the latest dot plot are approaching! How many dissenting votes will Powell receive this time? Will he remain in office after May next year? ②AI concept stocks Oracle and Broadcom will release earnings; ③Google will host the “Android XR Show” to showcase developments in AI and XR fields.
Cailian Press, December 7 (Editor: Shi Zhengzhang) As a key milestone in the final stretch of 2025, the market’s response to the Federal Reserve’s latest decision next week will largely determine trading sentiment in the last few weeks of this year.
In light of recent headwinds in the U.S. labor market, investors have largely reached a consensus on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week. The focus has now shifted to how many dissenting votes Powell will receive this time, as well as the “dot plot” showing Fed officials’ projections for future interest rate paths. Additionally, Powell’s tone and whether he will continue serving on the Federal Reserve Board next year will be key points during the press conference.
(The market is highly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, Source: CME “FedWatch”)
According to statistics, among the 12 voting members this year, at least five have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing. Milan, representing the “White House voice,” may also cast a dissenting vote, calling for a larger rate cut. Since 2019, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision meetings have not seen three or more dissenting votes, and since 1990, this has only occurred nine times.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who cast a dissenting vote earlier this year, stated last month that an increasingly divided Federal Reserve could undermine market confidence.
He said, “Once decisions become deadlocked at 7-5, any committee member changing their vote could alter the policy trajectory. Such one-vote margin decisions themselves weaken market confidence.”
Aside from the Federal Reserve, investors should also closely monitor and remain cautious about the Bank of Japan’s moves. Although there are still two weeks until the BOJ’s interest rate decision meeting, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will appear at a public event on Tuesday, and any confirmation of expectations for a rate hike could weigh on global markets.
Next week is still not peak earnings season, but the financial results of Oracle and Broadcom will undoubtedly impact the “AI narrative,” particularly regarding the former’s capital expenditure and financing issues.
On other fronts, the White House will convene allies including South Korea, the UAE, and Australia for an Artificial Intelligence Supply Chain Summit on December 12, with expected agreements in areas such as energy, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and transportation logistics.
Additionally, next Monday, the Golden Globe nominations will be announced against the backdrop of ‘Netflix’s mega-purchase of Warner Bros.’ Google will also host the ‘Android XR Show’ on the same day, expected to be a 30-minute live-streamed event showcasing advancements in AI glasses, headsets, and related ecosystems, particularly the integration with Gemini AI.
In addition, shareholders of Electronic Arts, a veteran American game developer, will vote on Wednesday regarding the $55 billion acquisition offer from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. The deal is considered the largest leveraged buyout in history.
Finally, following the usual schedule, the Nasdaq 100 Index may announce its annual component adjustment after the market closes next Friday.
On the international macro front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to visit London next Monday to discuss the Ukraine peace agreement with the leaders of the UK, France, and Germany. The latest news over the weekend indicates that significant differences remain between Ukraine and Russia on some key issues.
Overview of Key Financial Events for Next Week (Beijing Time)
Monday (December 8): Eurozone December Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to London (tentative)
Tuesday (December 9): US October JOLTs Job Openings, US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday (December 10): China November CPI, US 10-Year Treasury Auction, Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
Thursday (December 11): Federal Reserve FOMC releases interest rate decision and economic projections summary & Powell press conference, OPEC releases monthly oil market report
Friday (December 12): Nasdaq 100 Index announces annual component adjustment
