The global markets have once again seen a “wild swing of the pendulum” in the past eight hours, driven by conflicting news narratives related to the ongoing US-Iran war, which has lasted 25 days as of Tuesday, March 24, 2026.
Tuesday’s session marked a mild reversal from Monday’s sudden burst of risk-on behaviour triggered by US President Trump’s claim that the US and Iran are back on the negotiation table, and a deal is imminent to end the conflict. Iranian officials refuted such claims, which led to a sell-off in global equities, a rebound in the US dollar, and a decline in benchmark oil prices, accompanied by an intraday softening of gold and silver.
By the end of Tuesday’s US session, three major benchmark US stock indices ended with losses; S&P 500 (-0.37%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.77%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.18%), with a slight risk-off backdrop backed by an increased odds that the US White House is sending military ground forces to Iran to odd US-Israel joint offensive as media reports stated that US administration has ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy around 2,000 soldiers to the Middle East.
At around 4.15 am Singapore time, Wednesday, 25 March (right after the close of Tuesday’s US session), US President Trump gave a press conference that signalled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations he has claimed are ongoing, hinting at a possible ceasefire to happen “very soon”.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 e-min futures rose sharply at the start of Wednesday, 25 March Asian session, with an intraday gain of 1% before it dwindled to 0.7% at this time of writing.
However, Polymarket’s prediction market platform is not reflecting an imminent US-Iran ceasefire, and several key cross assets’ price action behaviour is not displaying clear signals of an all-out risk-on herd sentiment at this juncture.
Unfolding them as follows…
