Gold price and defence company shares rise after US captures Venezuela’s Maduro, but oil drops

US energy company shares are set to rally when Wall Street opens later today.

Chevron, which is seen as well-placed to invest in Venezuela’s oil industry, has jumped by 7% in pre-market trading. It is already operating in the country under a special licence provided by the Trump administration.

Exxon Mobil are up 3.2% in pre-market trading, while Halliburton – who provide products and services to the oil and gas sector – have jumped 9%.

Venezuela’s government bonds have leapt in value this morning (as JP Morgan predicted earlier), as investors bet on a debt restructuring following the capture of president Maduro.

As explained at 8.04am, Venezuela’s debt trades far below its face value after the country defaulted in 2017, but has been rising in recent weeks as some traders have anticipated regime change in Caracas.

Deutsche Borse data shows that a Venezuelan government bond that matures in 2027 has jumped in price, from 31.5p on the dollar to over 40p on the dollar.

A second bond which should have been repaid in 2022 has risen too, from 31.5p to 34p.

These gains mean bond vultures who swooped on Venezuela’s debt last month will already be sitting in profits, as the markets anticipate that Maduro’s removal could lead to a restructuring of Venezuela’s government debt.

Reuters reports that bonds issued by the country’s government and state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), jumped as much as 8 cents on the dollar, or around 20%, in early European trading, with analysts predicting further gains to come.

The oil price remains in the red this morning, with Brent crude now down 1% at $60.15 per barrel.

Analysts are in broad agreement that while the Venezuela attack is unlikely to boost demand for oil, it also won’t lead to a rapid surge in supply.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:

The question is, will traders focus on the potential for future Venezuelan oil flooding the market, which could tank the oil price, or will they focus on how much investment will be needed to get Venezuela to pump more oil? Right now, Venezuela pumps less than 1 million barrels per day, at its peak in 1998, before socialist dictators took control, it was pumping out nearly 3.5 million barrels per day. To get back to this level will take hundreds of billions of dollars in investment, which President Trump has said will partly come from US oil companies.

However, the type of investments needed including upgrading old and decaying infrastructure, drilling new oil wells and building more refineries to process Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. Optimizing resource-rich Venezuela to generate the income needed to turn the country around could take until 2030 and beyond, according to some oil analysts. Thus, any decline in the price of oil at the start of this week could be short lived.

Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, agrees that it would take several years to incease Venezuela’s oil exports significantly.

“The reported capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro might be a geopolitical shock, but for markets it’s not an oil-price earthquake. Venezuela accounts for roughly 1% of global supply, and even in a best-case political outcome, restoring production would take years. Most of the disruption risk is already priced in, meaning this is a slow-moving structural story rather than a trigger for sustained oil price moves.

“For investors, the earliest impact is likely to appear in US refining, where heavy Venezuelan crude fits existing infrastructure. Refiners with exposure to complex facilities may see improved economics at the margin, while Canadian oil sands producers face increased competition over time.

“US shale producers are largely insulated, but Canadian oil sands may face longer-term pressure. Venezuelan barrels compete most closely with Canadian heavy crude, and any gradual return could erode the scarcity premium that has supported pricing for producers such as Suncor and Cenovus Energy. For investors, the signal isn’t to trade the headline, but to watch where incremental supply quietly reshapes margins and relative winners.”

Precious metal producers Fresnillo (+4.2%) and Endeavour Mining (+4.3%) are also among the top stock market risers in London this morning, tracking the jump in gold and silver today.

London’s stock market has opened higher, lifted by weapons makers.

BAE Systems, which makes fighter jets, combat vehicles, artillary, warships and torpedoes, have jumped by 4.6% in early trading.

Defence contractor Babcock have risen by 3.8%.

Mining company shares are also rising in early trading, helping to push the FTSE 100 share index back over the 10,000-point mark which it hit for the first time last Friday.

The US capture of president Nicolas Maduro is expected to set to trigger a rally in Venezuela’s international debt, analysts at JPMorgan have predicted.

Reuters reports that JPMorgan analysts told clients that debt issued by state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) could also see strong demand:

“Venezuela and PDVSA bonds have roughly doubled in price since during the course of 2025, but should still see a strong bounce — up to 10 points — at the start of Monday’s session.”

Venezuela’s and PDVSA’s debt trades far below their face value since the country defaulted in 2017. But, its bonds rallied last month as investors gambled that the US might end Maduro’s regime, leading to a debt restructuring.

Bloomberg are reporting that China’s top financial regulator has asked its policy banks and other major lenders to report their lending exposure to Venezuela.

The move suggests there are growing concerns among regulators about potential shocks to the banking sector as geopolitical risks intensify.

China has provided significant support Venezuela in recent years, with billions of dollars of loans to finance development.

Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, suggests those loans could come under strain:

“If the US gets its way and US creditors and claimants become the senior creditors of Venezuelan debt, Chinese creditors would face higher risks of missed payments as the Venezuelan government and state firms struggle to meet US demands and domestic expenditure needs.”

Although the near-term economic and financial implications of the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro are “minor”, the geopolitical ramifications could keep some risk premia elevated, says Thomas Mathews, Head of Markets, Asia Pacific, at Capital Economics.

Mathews told clients this morning:

The key channel through which turmoil in Venezuela might affect global markets is energy. Recent developments don’t look like a game changer for the global oil market. Venezuelan supply accounts for about 1% of the that market, and even if production returned to its glory days of a decade ago it would only be about 2% of it. So, it’s not surprising that so far the effect on oil prices has been limited.

That makes for a stark contrast with, for example, the spike in those prices around the Israel-Iran conflict last year. But that episode also suggests that other markets should remain calm even if oil does ultimately move in response to the developments in Venezuela.

Looking further afield, the White House could use concerns over drugs and organised crime to extract concessions from other countries in the region.

Mathews adds:

Mexico is perhaps the most obvious candidate, and was indeed called out by Vice-President Vance in remarks on X following the raid. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see higher regional risk premia for a while.

Bitcoin has risen by almost 1.5% this morning, amid growing geopolitical tensions.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed to $92,495, adding to gains over the weekend.

The US dollar is rising on the foreign exchange markets this morning; its up 0.25% against a basket of other currencies.

The oil price has dipped this morning, as traders weigh up events in Venezuela.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has dipped by 0.67% to $60.34 a barrel.

Donald Trump has put Venezuela’s oil reserves at the heart of his plan for regime change in the country, suggesting US oil companies will spend billions of dollars on its infrastructure.

Analysts, though, point out that it could take years before there is a meaningful increase in Venezuela’s oil exports.

“This morning there’s still a lot of uncertainty, and for markets, there’s a debate about the extent to which any short-term oil supply disruption from the upheaval will end up being outweighed by a longer-term supply boost from higher Venezuelan production,” reports Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Reid adds:

After all, the US Energy Information Administration have said that Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, at 17% of the global total. But despite those reserves, production has declined significantly over recent years, with crude oil production in 2023 down 70% from its 2013 levels.

So the prospect of a long-term supply recovery would serve to lower oil prices, and Trump himself said over the weekend that US oil companies would “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country”. Indeed, those expectations have already brought down oil prices this morning.

Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Donald Trump’s strike on Venezuela last weekend, and the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, is sparking a dash for safe haven assets, and shares in defence companies, today.

Gold has jumped by more than 2% this morning to $4,420 an ounce, towards the record highs set at the end of last year.

Silver’s up around 4% at $75.50 an ounce, adding to its strong gains in 2025.

Trump’s move on Caracas on Saturday morning forces markets to react to political shockwaves just as investors return to their desks after the Christmas and new year break.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says markets are “barely flinching” at the Venezuelan news, although a risk premia is creeping back into asset prices.

Ozkardeskaya explains:

Unsurprisingly, safe-haven assets — led by gold — are enjoying a positive ride this morning. The yellow metal, which traded at a fresh record above $4,500 by the end of December but closed the year with a sharp decline below $4,400, is back above that level this Monday. Silver is up more than 3.6% at the time of writing, while the Swiss franc is softer against a broadly bid US dollar, and there is no particular sign of stress or lack of appetite across risk assets.

Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have risen today, with defence stocks rising across Japan and South Korea.

In Tokyo, defence contractor IHI has jumped 9% today, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries up 8.4%.

Shares of South Korean defence giant Hanwha Aerospace are up by 7%.

The agenda

• 9.30am GMT: Bank of England money and credit report

• 9.30am GMT: Bank of England mortgage approvals data

• 4pm GMT: ISM survey of US manufacturing