Global investors approaching 2026 face three structural forces grounded in observable economic reality rather than optimism alone, according to the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations on December 8.
Nigel Green of deVere Group identified persistent global economic growth, the transition of artificial intelligence from hype to measurable returns, and the return of diversification as meaningful contributors to performance. Green argued that markets reward evidence over enthusiasm as 2026 approaches, with investors increasingly distinguishing between stories and substance in their allocation decisions.
The first tailwind stems from broader global economic expansion that remains uneven but persistent. Current projections point toward expansion rather than contraction, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting global growth at 3.3 percent for both 2025 and 2026, showing resilience in the United States, gradual improvement across Europe and ongoing structural growth in parts of Asia. Large scale fiscal spending linked to infrastructure, defense, supply chain security and strategic industrial policy continues filtering through economies with long lags, providing steady underpinning for activity.
Green stressed this environment does not require rapid growth to support markets, explaining that when growth proves persistent rather than fragile, earnings expectations stabilize and capital becomes more willing to take risk. Broader participation across regions matters far more than headline growth rates, according to the advisor. This backdrop historically supports equities, selective credit and globally exposed companies while reducing over concentration risk seen when returns rely on one dominant region.
The second tailwind involves artificial intelligence and automation transitioning from valuation expansion to profit verification. After an initial phase dominated by capital spending, 2026 shapes up as a period where scrutiny intensifies on cash flow contribution and operational delivery rather than future promise alone. Green explained that companies discussing AI without showing returns will struggle, while those demonstrating margin improvement, cost reduction or revenue scalability will attract capital.
AI adoption no longer remains confined to a small group of technology leaders, with productivity gains beginning to emerge across healthcare, logistics, manufacturing and financial services. Automation, data optimization and intelligent systems improve efficiency and decision quality in these sectors. Green noted this phase favors execution, with businesses integrating technology into core operations standing out over those merely showcasing capabilities. Even modest but widespread productivity gains can accumulate into meaningful economic support over time, strengthening profitability without relying on excessive pricing power or leverage.
The third tailwind centers on diversification returning as a meaningful performance contributor after a decade dominated by a narrow segment of US assets. Valuations across regions have become less stretched, real yields in parts of fixed income prove more compelling than in recent years, and commodities plus other real assets regain relevance amid geopolitical tension and industrial reshoring. Green emphasized that diversification does not imply uniform gains, as dispersion increases across asset classes.
Currency movements gain growing importance in a less concentrated global environment, according to Green. When growth becomes more distributed, currencies begin mattering again as sources of return and risk. The advisor cautioned that investors relying on broad exposure alone may face disappointment, making selectivity critical in portfolio construction.
Green concluded that these tailwinds do not eliminate risk but provide structure as growth resilience, measurable innovation and renewed diversification begin to align. Investors approaching 2026 with realism, global awareness and disciplined analysis position themselves better than those chasing narratives, he stated.
The IMF projects global growth will slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market economies just above 4 percent. Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging markets.
The United States is projected to remain the world’s largest economy in 2026 with GDP of 31.8 trillion dollars, followed by China at 20.6 trillion dollars and Germany at 5.3 trillion dollars. India overtook Japan for fourth place in 2025 and will maintain its position in 2026 at 4.5 trillion dollars.
DeVere Group operates as an independent international financial consultancy serving over 100,000 clients worldwide through more than 70 offices across locations including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, London, Miami, New York and Hong Kong. The firm provides advice on international savings, bonds, life insurance, pensions and structured products for expatriates and international investors.
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