Is Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) Fairly Priced After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?

• If you are wondering whether Cboe Global Markets at around US$280.62 is priced high, low, or somewhere in between, this article walks through what the current share price might be implying about value.
• The stock has recently seen a 4.2% decline over the last 7 days and a 2.8% decline over the last 30 days, while still sitting on a 13.1% return year to date and a 32.5% return over the last year, with very large gains over 3 and 5 years of 120.9% and 209.2% respectively.
• These returns have kept Cboe Global Markets firmly on many investors’ watchlists, with recent market commentary focusing on its role as a major exchange operator and how trading volumes and product mix may influence sentiment. Broader discussions about listed exchanges as a group, including their fee structures and competitive positioning, also help frame how investors are currently thinking about Cboe Global Markets.
• On Simply Wall St’s valuation framework, Cboe Global Markets scores 2 out of 6. The next sections will walk through what different valuation approaches suggest about the stock, and then finish by looking at a broader way to think about value beyond any single model.

Cboe Global Markets scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Cboe Global Markets Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much value a company may create over and above the return that shareholders require. It starts with the equity investors put in, compares the expected return on that equity with the cost of equity, and then capitalizes those extra returns into an intrinsic value per share.

For Cboe Global Markets, the starting Book Value is $49.10 per share and the Stable Book Value is $64.43 per share, based on estimates from 2 analysts. The Stable EPS is $14.07 per share, sourced from weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 5 analysts. Against this, the Cost of Equity is $5.07 per share, which leaves an Excess Return of $9.00 per share. That is consistent with an Average Return on Equity of 21.84%.

On Simply Wall St’s Excess Returns framework, these inputs translate to an estimated intrinsic value of about $266.27 per share. This suggests the stock is about 5.4% above that estimate at the recent price of around $280.62. The model therefore points to Cboe Global Markets being slightly on the expensive side rather than a clear bargain.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Cboe Global Markets is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Cboe Global Markets.

Approach 2: Cboe Global Markets Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Cboe Global Markets, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors typically accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, while slower expected growth or higher risk tends to align with a lower, more conservative P/E.

Cboe Global Markets currently trades on a P/E of 26.8x. That sits below the Capital Markets industry average P/E of 29.6x and also below the peer group average of 31.4x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 14.4x, which reflects the P/E that might be expected given Cboe Global Markets’ earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, because it attempts to adjust for company specific characteristics rather than assuming all Capital Markets stocks deserve the same multiple. Compared with the Fair Ratio of 14.4x, the current P/E of 26.8x suggests the shares are trading at a premium to that model implied level.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Cboe Global Markets Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St help you turn your view of Cboe Global Markets into a clear story that links your assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value, and then a simple comparison with today’s price. All of this sits within an accessible Community page where different investors might, for example, anchor on a fair value near US$201.42 or closer to about US$662.19, see how that stacks up against the current price, and watch that fair value update automatically as new news or earnings are added. This gives you a living framework for deciding whether the stock currently looks more like a buy, hold, or sell in your own plan, rather than relying only on static ratios like the P/E.

For Cboe Global Markets however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Cboe Global Markets Narratives:

🐂 Cboe Global Markets Bull Case

Narrative fair value: US$287.92

Implied pricing vs this fair value: about 2.5% below the narrative fair value at the recent price of US$280.62

Analyst revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 16%

• Focuses on growth in derivatives, data, and global trading, along with higher margin recurring data services.
• Builds in analyst assumptions around revenue, margins, earnings and a future P/E to arrive at a fair value close to the current share price.
• Flags concentration in key index products, competition from fintech and DeFi, and execution risk in global expansion as important watchpoints.

🐻 Cboe Global Markets Bear Case

Narrative fair value: US$201.42

Implied pricing vs this fair value: about 39% above the narrative fair value at the recent price of US$280.62

Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 3.18%

• Uses detailed DCF and dividend models with a relatively low discount rate and multi stage growth assumptions to estimate intrinsic value.
• Compares outcomes from cash flow based and dividend based approaches, with the dividend model pointing to a lower value anchor.
• Highlights how different choices for growth and discount rates can lead to wide valuation ranges, reinforcing the need to test your own inputs.

If you want to take the next step and see these views in full, including all the assumptions behind them, head over to the Simply Wall St Community Narratives for Cboe Global Markets where both versions are available side by side.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Cboe Global Markets? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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