U.S. futures were mixed and global markets started the new month higher. Oil rose after OPEC and its allies agreed Sunday to boost production next month but said they won’t make any further increases for the first quarter of next year; gold rose.
—U.S. futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.1% and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat after both indexes closed the previous month higher. With the government shutdown entering its 34th day, focus will be on earnings with about a quarter of S&P 500 companies due to report this week.
—Asian shares closed higher, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 2.8%, led by chipmakers and large tech-related stocks. Mainland China stocks closed higher, supported by oil and banking stocks. Shanghai led the gains, closing 0.6% higher, while Shenzhen and ChiNext were up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was 1% higher. Japan’s Nikkei was closed due to a public holiday.
—European shares opened the new month higher. London’s FTSE 100 index was up 0.2%, Germany’s DAX rose 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 was up 0.1%, while the Stoxx 600 was 0.3% higher. Markets were boosted by the energy sector after OPEC’s decision to halt production increases for the first three months of 2026. BP shares were up over 1% after the oil major also sold down its interests in some U.S. midstream assets for $1.5 billion. Ryanair disappointed after failing to provide any actual guidance for fiscal 2026, but did say it expected to recover last year’s falls and report a reasonable net profit growth. Shares were down 1.5%.
—The dollar pulled back slightly after recent gains due to uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected last week but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December reduction wasn’t a foregone conclusion. Comments from Fed members since the meeting show differing views. The market is pricing a 68% chance of another cut in December, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index fell 0.1% to 99.745 but remains near the three-month high of 99.844 reached Friday.
—Eurozone government bond yields were marginally higher in early trade, in search for new drivers. “In the coming days, data, central bank comments and [bond] supply are likely to amplify the background noise rather than provide new direction,” Commerzbank Research’s Rainer Guntermann says in a note. The 10-year Bund yield rose 1.1 basis points to 2.647%, while the 10-year Italian BTP yield edged up 0.5bp to 3.391%, according to Tradeweb.
—U.S. Treasury yields traded mixed as European markets open. While the U.S. government shutdown continues, potential drivers for Treasurys this week include the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday. Markets also continue to come to terms with Powell’s message last week that a December rate cut wasn’t a foregone conclusion. The two-year Treasury yield fell 1.8bps to 3.587%, the 10-year Treasury yield was up 0.4bp at 4.103% and the 30-year yield rose 1.2bps to 4.680%, according to Tradeweb.
—Bitcoin fell as doubts over whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December curb demand for risky assets. Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $107,490, LSEG data show.
—Oil prices rose after OPEC+ agreed to pause output hikes for the first quarter of next year, easing fears of a growing supply surplus. Brent crude rises 0.3% to $65 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.4% to $61.21 a barrel. Key members of the group decided to raise production by 137,000 barrels a day for December and then pause increases from January to March.
—Gold rose in early trade, with New York futures up 0.7% to $4,026.50 a troy ounce. Investors are digesting last week’s U.S.-China trade agreement, which provided short-term relief to the market but did little to address fundamental divergences between the two nations. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,002.81 an ounce after China reportedly scrapped a longstanding gold-tax incentive, according to reports.
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