Will Optimism on Debt Issuance and IPOs Change S&P Global’s (SPGI) Capital Markets Narrative?

• An analyst recently reiterated a positive view on S&P Global, arguing the company could benefit from an upswing in debt financing and a busy IPO pipeline amid lower interest rates and strong fourth-quarter 2025 issuance.

• This reinforces S&P Global’s position as a key beneficiary when capital markets activity accelerates, given its central role in ratings and related services.

• We’ll now examine how expectations for increased debt issuance shape S&P Global’s investment narrative in light of its recent share price performance.

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To own S&P Global, you have to believe in the long-term relevance of its data, benchmarks and ratings, even if growth is steadier than spectacular. The recent analyst call, tying a more constructive stance to stronger debt issuance, lower rates and a busy IPO calendar, leans directly into one of S&P Global’s key short term catalysts: higher transaction volumes flowing through its Ratings and Market Intelligence businesses. The 4% share price reaction suggests the market sees this as at least directionally supportive, but given the already premium valuation and only moderate forecast growth, it may not radically change the risk‑reward profile. The bigger questions remain whether capital markets activity actually stays firm and how a relatively new management team steers through any slowdown.

However, investors also need to weigh how much they are paying if issuance cools again. S&P Global’s shares are on the way up, but could they be overextended? Uncover how much higher they are than fair value.

You can see how divergent expectations are: 23 Simply Wall St Community fair values span roughly US$313 to over US$627 per share, even before factoring in the latest issuance optimism and the risk that a premium multiple could compress if capital markets activity softens.

Explore 23 other fair value estimates on S&P Global – why the stock might be worth as much as 16% more than the current price!

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your S&P Global research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free S&P Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate S&P Global’s overall financial health at a glance.