How resources and routes are redrawing geopolitics

From stone to oil to rare earths, the history of power has always been tied to strategic materials. Today global competition revolves around critical minerals, Arctic routes and new infrastructures, while China and other powers expand their presence in the polar regions. A reflection by Simone Billi, League group leader on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

The history of humanity can also be read as the history of the materials that have shaped its development. In prehistoric times, stone marked the earliest stages of civilization; later came copper, bronze—born from the union of copper and tin—and eventually iron, which revolutionized tools, weapons, and the organization of societies. With the Industrial Revolution, the center of gravity shifted once again: coal, steel, and oil fueled industrialization and the economic growth of the modern world.

Today we have entered a new phase. Strategic materials are no longer limited to traditional energy sources but increasingly include so-called rare earths and critical minerals, which are indispensable for digital technologies, batteries, semiconductors, defense systems, and the energy transition. In this new geography of resources, the African continent represents one of the richest areas on the planet. At the same time, China has built a dominant position in supply chains over the past decades, while other actors—such as Russia and Turkey—are seeking to consolidate their own roles.

For the West, however, another strategic frontier is opening: the Arctic. The progressive melting of ice is making new resources and new shipping routes accessible, with enormous geopolitical implications. Yet on this front we are already lagging behind. Countries such as China are investing heavily in scientific presence, logistics, and infrastructure in the region. Italy, despite a great tradition of polar exploration—one need only think of the airship Italia and the expeditions of Umberto Nobile—today does not even possess an adequate fleet of icebreakers.

Meanwhile, China is rapidly strengthening its operational capabilities in the polar regions. In particular, it is developing a new generation of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered projects. These vessels offer very high operational autonomy, allowing them to remain in Arctic waters for extended periods without returning to port for refueling. Nuclear propulsion also makes it possible to power energy-intensive electronic systems and scientific instruments, which are essential for monitoring, research, and route control activities.

The issue of trade routes has always been central in the history of power. The wheel opened the way to overland trade; in antiquity, already in Roman times, it was clear that whoever controlled transport routes controlled wealth and influence. The age of great maritime explorations ushered in the era of global commerce. In the twentieth century, engineering literally reshaped the geography of the planet: steam power, railways, and major infrastructure such as the Suez and Panama canals transformed global trade routes and, with them, geopolitical balances.

In recent decades globalization has accelerated this process even further. Containerization has made maritime transport faster, standardized, and more cost-effective, creating an extremely efficient global trade network. Today, however, climate change and the melting of ice are opening a new chapter: Arctic routes. These navigation lanes could reduce the distance between Asia and Europe by as much as 40 percent, with potentially profound consequences for the geography of global trade.

For Europe and for Italy, this scenario poses a strategic challenge. If the center of gravity of global routes were to gradually shift northward, the Mediterranean could risk losing its centrality and becoming a sort of “internal sea” within the global trade system. This is a prospect we cannot afford to passively accept.

For this reason, Italy and the European Union must decisively address several strategic priorities: developing a policy on critical raw materials, strengthening scientific and infrastructural presence in the Arctic, ensuring food security, boosting scientific research, and protecting digital infrastructures—starting with undersea cables, which constitute the invisible backbone of the internet and the digital economy.

What is at stake is not only access to new resources or new trade routes. It is Europe’s ability to remain a central actor in a historical phase in which technology, energy, and infrastructure are once again redefining the map of global power.

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