Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain Beijing’s foremost external security concern for 2026, fuelled by uncertainties surrounding the US midterm elections and the growing involvement of Japan, according to a prominent Chinese think tank.
In its latest annual forecast of China’s external security risks, the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University framed this year as a pivotal moment in the profound reshaping of China’s outer defence environment.
Based on surveys and interviews with dozens of senior experts, the CISS report identified three defining features of the 2026 landscape, including the deepening fusion of economic security with geopolitics.
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An expansion of the US-led technology containment strategy and global narratives around a “second China shock” – tied to China’s persistent trade surpluses – may intensify protectionism in the US, EU and beyond, the report said.
A potential “three seas linkage” across the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea could lead to “an unprecedented level” of actions by the US and allies like Japan and the Philippines, creating resonant pressures and “triggering chain reactions”, it warned.
Beijing lays out its views on world order at Chinese Foreign Minister’s press conference
Beijing lays out its views on world order at Chinese Foreign Minister’s press conference
Regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections in November, the United States’ “technological blockade against China may shift from a ‘transactional shock’ to a ‘systemic containment’,” the report noted.
