The disruption to global energy markets caused by the war involving Iran has highlighted the strategic risks of relying heavily on fossil fuels, the head of the United Nations’ climate body warned on Monday.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said the crisis offers an “abject lesson” in the geopolitical dangers tied to oil and gas dependence.
Speaking to European Union policymakers in Brussels, Stiell will argue that the turmoil triggered by the conflict demonstrates how reliance on fossil fuel imports exposes economies to global shocks and volatile prices.
Although geographically distant from the fighting, Europe has felt the impact sharply through energy markets. European gas prices have surged roughly 50% during the first two weeks of the conflict as fears grow over supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Stiell warned that Europe’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels leaves it vulnerable to geopolitical crises.
The European Union imports more than 90% of its oil and roughly 80% of its natural gas, making it one of the most import-dependent major economies in the world.
According to Stiell’s prepared remarks, such dependence undermines national security by placing countries at the mercy of external suppliers and global market instability.
He argued that fossil fuel reliance effectively replaces economic sovereignty with exposure to sudden price shocks and political tensions.
Policymakers scramble to contain price surge
European governments are already drafting emergency measures to shield households and industries from rising energy costs.
The price spike has revived memories of Europe’s severe energy crisis following the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022, when cuts to Russian gas supplies sent energy prices across the continent to record highs.
EU leaders fear a similar scenario could emerge if instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt oil and gas flows, particularly through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global energy shipments.
The European Commission maintains that the bloc’s long-term climate strategy focused on replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and nuclear power will strengthen Europe’s energy independence while lowering costs over time.
By expanding domestic sources of energy such as wind and solar power, policymakers hope to reduce reliance on imported fuels and shield economies from geopolitical disruptions.
Stiell is expected to emphasise that renewable energy sources provide greater stability because they are not tied to volatile global markets or vulnerable shipping routes.
However, the energy shock has reignited political debates within Europe about the pace and cost of the green transition.
Governments including Italy and Hungary have urged Brussels to ease some climate regulations to provide short-term relief for industries struggling with rising energy costs.
Stiell is expected to strongly reject that approach, warning that weakening climate policies would only deepen long-term vulnerability to energy crises.
The latest geopolitical turmoil underscores a growing convergence between climate policy and national security strategy.
For decades, European economies have relied heavily on imported oil and gas to power industry and households. But repeated crises from Russia’s gas cuts in 2022 to the latest Middle East conflict have exposed the fragility of that model.
The current war demonstrates how geopolitical instability in a single region can rapidly ripple through global energy markets, pushing up costs for countries thousands of kilometres away.
Supporters of rapid decarbonisation argue that renewable energy offers a structural solution: once installed, wind and solar power generate electricity without dependence on foreign fuel suppliers or vulnerable shipping routes.
Yet the transition itself carries political and economic challenges. Renewable infrastructure requires major upfront investment, and industries already facing high costs are wary of additional regulatory pressure.
The debate now confronting European leaders is therefore not only about climate goals, but also about how quickly economies can shift away from fossil fuels without triggering new economic strains. The Iran war may intensify that dilemma, forcing governments to balance immediate energy security with long-term climate commitments.
With information from Reuters.
