Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, met with President Vladimir Putin and other Russian leaders in St. Petersburg recently. Iran is a strategically important neighbor for Russia. Moscow’s main interest in Iran is access to the Indian Ocean. A railway line extends from Russia through Azerbaijan to Iran’s coastline ports. There is additional mutual interest in the defense industry and nuclear energy.
This relationship has an important geopolitical angle; however, it does not mean that Russia has a special affinity for the current regime in Tehran. Rather, the Kremlin has an interest in an Iranian regime which will not be part of a Western alliance.
Moscow has an advantage over the Europeans and Americans in that it understands the mullahs’ logic. Unfortunately, Western diplomats and governments have problems thinking in different models, which leads to foreign policy failure in relations with nearly all non-Western countries. Moscow understands that the mullahs feel a religious legitimacy which, they believe, is more important than life or prosperity, and this legitimacy justifies their brutal oppression.
At the same time, Islamist politics is dangerous for Russia, as President Putin is well aware. The Kremlin would not be worried about regime change in Tehran if the security of the north-south transport corridor were assured and the new regime were not in a pro-Western alliance.
Given the geopolitical context, regime change in Iran is absolutely crucial for peace and prosperity throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. This is particularly important for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, as well as for Iraq, Syria, and Iran’s direct neighbors, Turkiye and Pakistan. Israel, threatened by annihilation, is obviously in favor of strong measures.
The regime itself is widely despised by the entire Iranian population. The country is under the mullahs’ control because it has been captured and stability is based on brutal oppression. The attacks over the past two months from the United States and Israel have the potential to help the opposition; we can only hope that the many different parts of the opposition are able to find common ground. The manner in which other Western countries act − urging de-escalation − is very short-sighted. It is a bit like treating cancer with painkillers.
European countries are not directly engaged militarily, but they could give help and support to the opposition and reduce diplomatic relations, requesting that diplomatic staff leave the country. Unfortunately, this is not happening.
Western diplomats and governments have problems thinking in different models, which leads to foreign policy failure in relations with nearly all non-Western countries.
One of the important leaders of the opposition is Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who is in exile. He does not want to restore a monarchy, but he is pushing for change and freedom for the Iranian people. He was recently in Europe, and in Berlin, no government officials welcomed him for talks, although it might have been useful from a long-term perspective.
This leads to the larger picture. There is a paradigm shift which many have difficulty understanding.
Russia’s intention is to be a respected continental power exercising influence on neighboring territories. This has not changed over the last 250 years. Therefore, Europe, which needs to trade with Russia, must be very strong to preserve the sovereignty of the central European countries stretching from Ukraine in the south up to Poland, the Baltics and Finland in the north.
The U.S. strives to be in control of alliances in the Americas from the southern tip of South America to the Arctic. It is somewhat like the policies of the old British Empire: Washington does not want any power to be strong enough to challenge it or able to create situations that critically threaten American interests.
China has hegemonic aspirations, but does not have the Americans’ advantage of being protected by oceans on all sides. Plus, the country is threatened by a sharply declining population. China works globally to influence multipolarity and has excellent relationships, alliances and organizations with the Global Majority in South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even Europe.
Most countries of the emerging world want to protect their interests. The largest is India, which, again, seeks a hegemonic role for itself in the Indian Ocean region. Middle powers such as Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia find alliances among themselves, with a pacifying role in the Middle East; the same can be seen in the ASEAN area.
Latin America is somewhat divided, but it depends more on whether the countries have socialist governments or are conservative or free-market oriented. This is the present situation.
One of the biggest question marks is Europe’s role: What is it now, and what will it be? The decline of Europe in a global comparison is remarkable. What is also astonishing is the lack of understanding in European capitals of the fundamental shifts and paradigm changes.
Up to the mid-18th century, China was one of the largest, most self-confident powers in the world. The Chinese, the Middle Kingdom, decided that they were culturally so much better than the rest of the world that they avoided all foreign progress in trade, technology, military and other areas. This sort of splendid isolation led to the “century of humiliation” and multiple invasions by European countries and Europeans forcing open the markets. China has overcome that.
Unfortunately, Europe now presents an arrogant illusion of superiority and believes that, as a regulatory superpower, it can play a role in global competition. The applied moralistic hybrid will fail. Europe risks China’s fate of the 19th century.
However, there are now indications − not yet among politicians, but in certain areas of society and business − that changes are wanted. The Old Continent might yet return to realism and pragmatism.
The present Iran crisis reveals these new complexities. Without regime change in Iran, there will be no peace in the Middle East. Economically and politically, the region is crucial for many parts of the world – especially for Europe. Therefore, an understanding of the region is vitally important for Europe’s resilience.
Sign up for our newsletter
Receive insights from our experts every week in your inbox.
Information about what personal data we collect about you and how we process it (including information about how we personalize our website for you and deliver content tailored to you) can be found in our privacy policy.
