Read the full transcript of American futurologist and political scientist George Friedman in conversation with Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith on “Why Trump’s Tariffs on India Are Part of a Wider Geopolitical Game”, August 27, 2025.
INTRODUCTION
CHRISTIAN SMITH: The decision by Donald Trump to threaten India with 25% tariffs due to its purchase of Russian oil was a bold one. The idea of secondary tariffs on third countries to target Russia has been mooted for a while, but it still felt shocking when it came, particularly against a country like India.
And while the US said that the primary motivation was to hit Russia where it hurt, it understandably prompted a strong reaction from the government in New Delhi. After all, the US and India have seemingly become closer and closer in recent years in an effort to counter China.
So today on the podcast, I am joined by GPF Chairman and founder George Friedman as we take a look at why the US Government was willing to hit India, whether it was actually about Russia at all, and what it says more generally about Trump’s grand strategy. I’m Christian Smith. Welcome to this podcast from Geopolitical Futures.
George, good to have you back. As always. These tariffs are due to come in, I think, later on this week, I think Wednesday the 27th. Specifically, just talk us through why Trump’s done it in the first place.
The Dual Purpose Behind the Tariffs
GEORGE FRIEDMAN: I think he had two reasons. One was to demonstrate on a fairly friendly country that we are so antagonistic to the Russians in what they’re doing that their sale of oil to India would be punished with tariffs on India.
But I also had another thing, which is with China. China sees India as a threatening force is the way I would put it.
