Rising geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices are more than headlines. They drive up transportation, production, and fertilizer costs, risking food insecurity.[1] These impacts disproportionately harm the Global Majority, exacerbating inequalities.[2] While countries strive for a just energy transition away from fossil fuels, efforts remain fragmented, uncoordinated, and uneven, deepening injustice. Ongoing geopolitical instability underscores the risks of fossil fuel dependency and the need for systemic change.
A well-managed transition could avert climate disasters, foster resilience, and reshape global power dynamics. The upcoming Fossil Fuel Phaseout Conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, is a critical test of global ambition. Beyond debates, it must establish follow-up mechanisms (such as funds, capacity building platforms and policy support) and a solution-focused coalition to advance a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
The Urgency of Collaborative Governance
Climate Strategies’ research underlines a critical gap in energy transition efforts: the absence of robust governance and dialogue between fossil fuel importers and exporters. Decision making and governance in this sphere are often fragmented and not managed on a larger scale, which limits a transformation on a systemic level.
This fragmentation also highlights and perpetuates inequalities between the Global North and South. The lack of cooperation and frequent contradictory signalling from the Global North – no coherent narratives on fossil fuel phaseout, taking back pledges and re-opening exploration of fossil fuels – results in a lack of trust from the Global South which needs the transition to yield certain co-benefits various spheres and support a resilient development of countries, and their economies.
Without coordinated action, the transition risks being neither just, nor effective. Furthermore, discussing an energy transition alone is not enough – equity must be embedded at every level of governance: national and international, making sure that efforts to transition away from fossil fuels are collaborative and current fragmentation is adequately addressed.
What is most needed now are clear, binding commitments, not just voluntary pledges, mechanisms to hold all parties accountable as well as impactful, inclusive action beyond the discussions behind closed doors.
Co-creating the Transition
The current geopolitical system is marked by power imbalances. Fossil fuel-dependent economies face instability and limited diversification capacity, while advanced economies often dictate transition terms, leaving vulnerable communities, especially in the Global South, to bear the costs.
Climate Strategies’ Just Transition Framework, authored by Steven J. Harry, highlights a fundamental flaw: the gap between international commitments and national delivery reflects historical power imbalances. Current governance perpetuates these inequities, leaving transitions fragmented. Without amplifying the voices of affected groups such as youth, Indigenous Peoples and local communities (IPLCs), conferences risk becoming platforms for high-level discussions disconnected from local realities. Power-sharing and co-creation of policies based on local needs are essential.
Just Transitions, not only Energy Transitions
Energy transitions are about more than emissions; they are about prosperity and peace. Poorly managed, they risk deepening inequalities; but if done right, they can catalyse shared prosperity.
Progress is undermined when climate finance ignores social justice, consultation lacks real power-sharing, and international partnerships deepen inequity rather than enabling it. A just transition requires clearer international signalling on future demand and supply to build trust, alongside stronger coordination between importers and exporters to align interests. Scaling cooperation on finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building is essential to address structural constraints, as is strengthening analytical tools and modelling for informed decision-making. Economic diversification must be central to transition strategies, reducing exposure to external shocks and supporting resilient growth.
What we need now is more than political momentum. The transition away from fossil fuels must be rooted in bold, inclusive action. This means advancing tools and guidelines to ensure phaseout plans are both ambitious and equitable. It also means redirecting climate finance toward social outcomes, not just technical fixes, and empowering local and subnational actors so that transition plans reflect real lived experiences, not top-down dictates. Finally, it means closing data gaps and strengthening institutions to ensure no community is left invisible or unprotected. Without these steps, our efforts will fall short of the justice and transformation this moment demands.
The Santa Marta Opportunity
The conference can amplify existing processes, such as UNFCCC just transition efforts and the COP30 Presidency’s Roadmap, to mark a new era where transitions prioritise justice, equity, and inclusivity, ensuring no one is left behind.
[1] From Oil to Food, the Iran War Is Squeezing the Global Economy – The New York Times
[2] War in Iran threatens fresh food-price shock across developing world | Reuters
