The planet registered 420 water conflicts in 2024, the highest number ever documented, and the dispute over rivers like the Nile, Colorado, Tigris, Euphrates, Indus, and Mekong exposes a race for dams that downstream countries already see as a threat of hydrological war.

According to the Pacific Institute, in a report published in November 2025, 420 water-related violence events were recorded in 2024. This number represents an increase of almost 20% compared to the previous year and 78% compared to 2022. In 2000, only 24 episodes had been documented worldwide. The data is part of the Water Conflict Chronology, considered the most comprehensive database on water violence, which monitors everything from interstate disputes to local conflicts over access to wells and supply systems.

In 2024, most conflicts were related to direct attacks on water systems. Approximately 61% of episodes involved the destruction or sabotage of water infrastructure, while 34% were motivated by disputes over access or control of resources. Another 5% involved the deliberate use of water as a weapon.

The Middle East concentrated the highest number of occurrences, followed by South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The increase from 24 to 420 episodes in 25 years is not solely explained by improvements in data collection.

According to experts, the growth reflects a structural change in water availability relative to global demand. Population expansion, agricultural intensification, and climate change have increased pressure on limited water resources, creating an environment conducive to conflicts.

Most recorded conflicts do not occur between countries, but within national territories. These are disputes between rural communities, farmers, local groups, and even families over access to water for consumption or irrigation.

This pattern indicates that the water crisis is not only geopolitical but also social and economic.

In 2024, approximately 16% of recorded conflicts were linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine, with attacks on water supply and treatment systems.

Another 12% were associated with the conflict between Israel and Palestine, including the destruction of wells and water infrastructure in areas such as Rafah and Khan Yunis.

These episodes demonstrate the increasing use of water as an instrument of pressure in armed conflicts.

The inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in September 2025 marked a critical point in the dispute over the Nile River.

With a capacity of 5,150 megawatts and a reservoir of 74 billion cubic meters, the plant is the largest in Africa.

Egypt, which depends on the Nile for about 97% of its water, considers the project a direct threat to its water security.

The dispute over the dam involves multiple dimensions. It includes technical debates on operation during dry periods, legal disputes over historical agreements, geopolitical movements in the region, and military preparation for possible conflict scenarios.

To date, there is no binding agreement between the countries on water use. In the United States, the Colorado River faces a crisis stemming from the agreement signed in 1922.

The treaty was based on an abnormally wet period and allocated more water than the river is capable of supplying under normal conditions.

Recent droughts, including the most severe in 1,200 years between 2020 and 2022, exposed this fragility, resulting in supply cuts.

The Mekong River, which supplies about 60 million people, faces impacts from the construction of dams in its upper course.

China has built 11 large dams, while countries like Laos are also expanding their hydroelectric capacity.

These interventions alter the river’s natural flow, affecting agriculture, fishing, and water supply in downstream countries.

In the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, Turkey controls the headwaters and has built an extensive dam system.

The reduced flow directly impacts Syria and Iraq, which face droughts, loss of agricultural productivity, and increased soil salinity. The shrinking of areas like Lake Hammar highlights the effects of this dynamic.

Unlike other strategic resources, water does not have a global agreement with binding legal force.

The UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses has limited adherence and does not include major powers involved in water disputes. This absence hinders the mediation and resolution of conflicts on an international scale.

The combination of population growth, climate change, and intensive use of water resources points to a scenario of increasing scarcity.

Without effective global governance mechanisms, conflicts tend to intensify. The accelerated growth of water conflicts indicates a structural change in the international scenario.

In your view, is the dispute over water resources likely to become the main axis of global conflicts in the future?